Coverage of the appulse of mu Geminorum by 752 Sulamitis on 2000 Nov. 20

Updated: 2000 Nov. 18, 0h U.T.
     This was certainly the most frustrating asteroidal occultation of 
my life.  Known (to me) observational coverage of the event is indicated 
below, where first the distances of the observing stations from the 
central line of Martin Federspiel's November 11th prediction are given, 
then the location, coordinates, name, and height of the observers.  
Distances are measured perpendicularly to the height-corrected central 
line. Frac. is the fractional distance from the center to the edge, = 
dist./(0.5*width), where the width is the 69-km width of the predicted 
zone of totality.  The partial occultation zone is about 30% greater, or 
about 2.6 half-widths.  The "C" column is a code indicating the form of 
the coordinates, "D" or blank meaning that they are in degrees and 
decimals of a deg.; "M" meaning that they are in degrees, minutes of arc, 
and decimal minutes of arc; and "O" meaning that they are in degrees, 
minutes of arc, and seconds of arc. 

     The asteroid subtended about 0.06", quite small, but we've had a 
better than 50% success rate in calculating these paths, using the 
accurate Flagstaff and Table Mtn. Obs. astrometry, to better than half a 
path-width.  So this high-profile event turns out to have a larger 
prediction error than usual and shifts completely out of the expected 
path, where all of the mobile observers naturally congregated.  So far, I 
know of no positive observations of this occultation.  Maley at 1.37 km S 
recorded an approximately 10-sec. occultation of mu Gem, but eta Gem also 
disappeared during much of that time; clouds were clearly involved at his 
site, less than 500m from Degenhardt's site that recorded no occultation.  
The only other claimed dimmings of the star were at the close stations 
(within 500m) at Elliston, VA (J. Guerber) and 30 km s. of Ft. McMurray, 
AB (Alister Ling and Sharon Tansey).  They both reported substantial 
dimmings, but Jeff's was over one minute before the predicted time of 
closest approach, while Ling and Tansey's event was at the predicted time; 
the times don't match.  Like Maley, Ling and Tansey's site was affected by 
"herring-bone" clouds with thick parts; fortunately, the others of us in 
Alberta (except at Ft. McMurray, 40 km or 1.19 half-widths from the 
predicted central line; Brian Thachuk tried to observe there, but was 
completely clouded out) had thinner clouds that allowed us to monitor the 
star well throughout the 2 minutes around the time of closest approach.  
Guerber was observing with only binoculars in a brightly twilit sky (Sun 
alt. about -4 deg.), and lost the star altogether just after his marginal 
dimming; the others in Virginia used telescopes and had no trouble 
monitoring the star.  For awhile, a possible positive observation was 
claimed by Jim Davison in Nashville, TN, but upon further review of his 
video, he noted that other stars dimmed at the same time, and is now 
rather confident that there was no occultation dimming at his site that 
was far south of the predicted path.

     Included in this list is the negative observation made within the 
south side of the predicted path of totality in Meadow Lake Park, Sask., 
where the sky was clear (the rest of us from Edmonton should have gone 
there instead of up the road to Ft. McMurray, but that didn't seem to be 
the best thing to do based on the weather forecast just before we had to 
leave Edmonton). 

     Two negative observations from observatories in Saskatchewan 
(Sleaford) and Manitoba (Glenlea) compound the dilema of "where was the 
real path"? Bill Gray's prediction was a little over half a path-width 
north of Federspiel's, and Manek's was about 1.2 path-widths north of it, 
so maybe the path shifted north?  I think that is most likely, with a 
shift of close to 1.0 path-widths north, since then the path could have 
fit between Glenlea and Anzac; also, the asteroid could have been smaller 
in the cross-track dimension.  Did anyone besides Scott Young try to 
observe from Manitoba?  In Alberta and most of Saskatchewan, there were no 
roads and thus no observers north of the expected path, and the weather 
was overcast over virtually all of the northern side of the path in the 
U.S.  All of the observers listed below, with the already-discussed 
exceptions, reported no dimming of the star during several minutes 
surrounding the closest-approach times at their stations. 

     Could the path have shifted south?  Then either G. Bilecky should have 
recorded a dimming, or there should have been one at Sleaford Obs., but they 
both said no.  The fit between these two stations is tighter than that 
between Glenlea and Anzac on the north side.  My prediction, that agreed 
with Federspiel's, used only the Table Mtn. Observatory observations made 
during 4 nights the week before the occultation; I thought they should have 
the highest weight.  But my prediction using the USNO-Flagstaff 
observations, only two of which were in November (1st and 8th, rather far 
before the event), indicated a path about a path-width south of 
Federspiel's.

     So as I said, this has been a very frustrating event.  It's too bad the 
weather was bad over such a large, populous part of the path where the event 
occurred in a reasonably dark sky.

    Distance,      Location        C Latitude Longitude  Sta.      h,  
   km    Frac.                                             #       m   
125.11N  3.680N  GlenleaObsMBSYoungD 49.6454  -97.1208    206     208. 
 31.13N  0.916N  Anzac AB          M 5626.899 -11102.276  200      497.
 24.24N  0.713N  Glenvar VA        O 371531.38-800957.30  213     402.3
 19.17N  0.564N  Elliston VA       O 371415.6 -801321.5   212     387. 
 18.47N  0.543N  30k sFM AB A Ling M 5625.657 -11118.479  201      526.
  3.17N  0.093N  Christiansburg VA O 370819.4 -802135.0   211     681. 
  1.37S  0.040S  50kTsFM AB approx.M 5619.62  -11135.51   202      520.
  1.82S  0.054S  Harveysburg OH    O 393003.06-835713.20  214     302. 
 10.56S  0.311S  Radford VA - WHW  O 370454.78-803046.92  208     608.1
 13.50S  0.397S  Radford VA - RLN  O 370521.1 -803428.    210     570. 
 17.72S  0.521S  67k sFMAB         M 5611.573 -11143.308  203      500.
 17.92S  0.527S  Newberry VA       O 370433.7 -803757.1   209     609.6
 21.43S  0.630S  MeadowLakeParkSK  D 54.55    -108.67     215     500. 
 32.09S  0.944S  83k sFMAB         M 5605.064 -11151.828  204     738. 
 99.49S  2.926S  Sleaford Obs SK   O 520504.  -1055513.   205     500. 
449.4 S 13.22 S  Nashville TN      D 36.1     -86.8       216     500. 

 Dist.,   Location         Observer                Sta.
   km                                                # 
125.11N GlenleaObsMBSYoung MPC729SCottYoungWin.RASC 206
 31.13N Anzac AB           David Dunham, video      200
 24.24N Glenvar VA         John Z Wetmore           213
 19.17N Elliston VA        Jeffrey R Guerber        212
 18.47N 30k sFM AB A Ling  A. Ling, S.Tansey 8in.   201
  3.17N Christiansburg VA  Peter Chen,Tina Dwyer    211
  1.37S 50kTsFM AB approx. Paul Maley, video        202
  1.82S Harveysburg OH     Scott Degenhardt, video  214
 10.56S Radford VA - WHW   Wayne H Warren Jr        208
 13.50S Radford VA - RLN   Richard L Nugent, video  210
 17.72S 67k sFMAB          vis. Murray Paulson      203
 17.92S Newberry VA        Robert H Stewart, video  209
 21.43S MeadowLakeParkSK   3.5in.videoRussSampson&+ 215
 32.09S 83k sFMAB          PC33C Gary Bilecky       204
 99.49S Sleaford Obs SK    12.5in. R.Huziak,Saskatn 205
449.4 S Nashville TN       Jim Davison video        216

David Dunham, 2000 December 1