Spectacular mu Arietis graze in Texas TONIGHT (2007 June 12 UT)

New: 2007 June 11, 21h UT

Sorry, except for this Power Point file, I don't have time to create 
hot links for the URL's mentioned below, you need to cut and paste 
them into your browser.

If you can, please try to observe the spectacular n. limit graze of 
the 5.7-mag. close triple star mu Arietis (ZC 399) by the 10% sunlit 
Moon between 9:57 and 10:06 UT tomorrow night (actually early Tues. 
am, June 12, 4:57-5:06 am CDT.  Let me or Rick Frankenberger know if 
you can join either his expedition s. of San Antonio or mine n.w. of 
Houston, or if you might try on your own somewhere else.  The path, 
crossing southeastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and northern 
Mississipii, is path #112 on p. 149 of the RASC Observer's Handbook 
for 2007 (those maps, as well as tabular details of the graze, are 
also on my Web site at http://iota.jhuapl.edu/grazemap.htm.  For 2-3 
min., the bright star will flash on and off in steps as its 
components are occulted by mountains & craters along the n. edge of 
the Moon in a km-wide path that passes near Tilden on Route 16
about 50 miles s. of San Antonio, Texas; just n. of Cuero; s. of 
Weimar and e. of Columbus near I-10; east of Waller near US290 (my 
expedition n.w. of Houston plans to use sites near there); over 
Conroe at I-45 n. of Houston; near Goodrich, TX crossing US59; near 
Natchez (I-49), Winnfield, and just e. of Monroe, Louisiana; near 
Grenada (I-55) and n.w. of Tupelo, Mississippi (twilight starting to 
get rather bright there); and over Nashville, Tenn., but with the 
Sun alt. -4 deg. there, it will be difficult. 

You can zoom in on the path in great detail using the ZC 399 link on 
Brad Timerson's graze page at 
http://www.fingerlakessynthetics.com/occultations/GrazeMaps.html or 
directly at 
http://www.fingerlakessynthetics.com/occultations/0610ZC399.htm .  
For the interactive map, you need to enter different values for the 
gray offset lines depending on the area you want to map the path, 
according to the table below (these are distances in km from the 
northern limit line; they are all south since this is a shallow 
part of the Moon:

upper lower
gray  gray
line  line  Moon
A     B     Alt. Area
-1.0  -2.0  10   Tilden, TX near Route 16
-0.9  -1.9  11   Cuero, TX
-0.8  -1.8  12   Columbus, TX near I-10
-0.7  -1.7  13   Waller, TX near US290
-0.6  -1.6  14   Conroe, TX
-0.4  -1.4  16   Natchez, LA near I-49
 0.0  -1.5  22   n.w. MS

Occult doesn't have the right information about the close 
components.  The components are mag. 6.3, 6.8, and 8.3, 
respectively.  The bright pair is only 0.01" apart in PA 188, while 
the 8.3-mag. 3rd star is 0.2" north of the tight pair.  So the graze 
range shouldn't be modified on account of the duplicity, since the 
bright pair is so close and the 3rd star's events will occur in the 
southern half of the graze zone.  I'm especially interested in this 
star because I co-discovered the close duplicity during a s. limit 
gibbous Moon graze in St. Louis (where I lived then) in Jan. 1969.  
In August 1973, students from the Univ. of Texas and I (I was at 
U.T. then) drove to Edinburg in s. Texas to try to observe a n. 
limit graze of mu Ari.  It was cloudy there, so we drove about 100 
mi. s.w. along the path into Mexico, setting up along a dirt road 
where my van got stuck in the mud near the n. end of the graze zone.  
The probable 3rd component was discovered during that expedition.  
In late Dec. 1973, we drove to southern Mexico to observe an annular 
eclipse.  On the way back, we stayed with friends in Mexico City, 
and from there, made a side trip s. to Cuernavaca to observe another 
n. limit graze of mu Arietis.  But either the Mexican maps or the 
predictions weren't as good in those pre-Hipparcos/pre-GPS days and 
all but the southernmost observer had a miss.  These were all visual 
observations; now I want to capture a graze of this interesting star 
on video.

Observers within 0.2 or even 0.3 km north of the northern gray line 
will probably have one, or maybe two, short occultations by the 
tops of the highest mountains, but they risk getting a miss.  
Observers up to 1.5 km south of the southern gray line will have 
a few multiple events at the start and end of a nearly 2-min.-long 
occultation, but not nearly as many multiple events as observers 
between the two gray lines are likely to get.  The profile on Brad 
Timerson's Web site is misleading because it is for longitude 75 
deg., in daylight far northeast of where the graze can really be 
seen, and just uses Watts data rather than previously-observed graze 
data, which are important for this event (the old graze data show 
that the actual lunar profile is lower than predicted by Watts). 
In the graze zone, the star will approach the Moon from the bright 
side, passing over the north cusp a few min. before graze.  It will 
be an interesting spectacle to watch, but even better if you can 
time or video tape it; for information about timing, see 
http://iota.jhuapl.edu/timng920.htm or the IOTA online observing 
manual at http://www.poyntsource.com/IOTAmanual/Preview.htm . A 
total occultation (for most, just 1 disappearance, usually on the 
dark side very close to the north cusp, followed generally 10 to 15 
min. later by the good dark side reappearance, will be visible from 
most of the central eastern USA south of the northern limit. 

The Canadian weather forecast for astronomy (Astro meteo) updated 
their forecast recently; their 34h prognosis is for mostly clear 
skies along the path over Texas with average transparency west of 
Waller and only slightly poorer to the east.  Clouds increase 
rapidly along the path in Louisiana and Mississippi is overcast, but 
quite clear again in Tennessee. 

Observers will need to find locations with not too many nearby trees 
or buildings obstructing the east-northeastern horizon, where the 
Moon will rise.  Fortunately, rather detailed aerial photography 
showing trees quite well is available in the "satellite" or "hybrid" 
views of the interactive Web site above.  I have used it to select 
suitable sites north and west of Houston, along mainly unpopulated 
rural roads with good views over fields in the graze zone.  Sometime 
Monday afternoon, I'll post maps of some of these on my Web site at 
below.  In the meantime, they are described below; you can find them 
either on your own local maps, Google Earth, other mapping Web 
sites, or the interactive Web page given above (Timerson's site). 

A. Sites along Hegar Rd. extending for 0.7 mile north from Waller 
Tomball Rd (FM 2920), the meeting intersection - try to be there no 
later than 4 am CDT.  To get there, go north for 2.5 miles on Hegar 
Rd. from its exit from US290 4 miles east of Waller; this is about 
30 miles northwest of downtown Houston. 

B. If the weather makes it better to go farther northeast, there 
are few useable sites since the area is rather heavily forested.  I 
found two possibilities northeast of Conroe:
B1. Along FM 1484 (called Browder-Traylor Rd., at least n. of the 
graze zone) extending 0.5 mi. n. and s. of its intersection with 
S William Rd.  To get there, go 8 miles e. on Route 105 from I-45 in 
the middle of Conroe, to FM 1484, which is also 4.5 mi. e. of Route 
336 (Loop 336 East); then go about 2.5 mi. n. on FM 1484 from 
Route 105.
B2. Only if B1 doesn't work, it should be possible to observe from 
an industrial area from sites along Beach Airport Rd. from 0.3 mi. 
n. of Route 105 to 0.4 mi. s. of it.  Beach Airport Rd. intersects 
Route 105 3 mi. e. of I45 or 1 mi. w. of Loop 336 East.

C. If the weather makes it better to go farther southwest, there 
are good sites near I-10 e. and s. of Columbus, about 60 mi. w. of 
downtown Houston.
C1. Along Lehrmann Rd. extending for 0.7 mi. s. from FM949, whose 
exit from I-10 is 6 mi. e. of Columbus.  Turn n. onto FM949 and go 
4 mi. to Lehrmann Rd.
C2. Almost as good is along Frelsburg Rd. from 0.7 to 1.4 mi. n.w. 
of the FM949 exit from I-10.  FM949 first goes n.w. from the exit 
for 0.6 mi., then bends 90 deg. to the n.e.; instead, continue 
n.w. onto Frelsburg Rd.
C3. Along Route 71 from 0.9 to 1.6 mi. s. from its exit from I-10 at 
Columbus.
I could find no good sites s.w. of Columbus and s. of Weimar.  The 
Houston A.S. has an observing site in this area; I found it from its 
coordinates, it looks like there's a Stonehenge-like circle there.  
But it's n. of the northern limit so no occulation (a miss) will 
surely occur there, and there is no reasonable access to sites s. 
of there, which is rather heavily forrested. Similarly, I found Star 
Ridge Observatory s. of Weimar, but it is also too far north 
relative to the path and will have a miss.

If it's necessary to go farther west, I will just join Rick 
Frankenberger's effort near Tilden s. of San Antonio; his phone 
numbers are 210-681-2276 (home) & 210-834-2276 (cell); his e-mail is 
rickf@stic.net .

Paul Maley was going to try to organize some effort from Houston for 
this, but I haven't heard from him, and he said that if he returned 
too late from his current trip, he might have to give it up.

I'll be checking how well Astro Meteo forecasts this (Mon.) 
morning's weather in southeastern Texas, which is supposed to be 
similar to but slightly worse than that for Tues. am.  I will decide 
about 1 pm CDT, based on what happens later this morning and the new 
Astro Meteo forecast that will be available then, to decide if I'll 
procede with my flight, which leaves Baltimore at 7:30 pm EDT and 
should arrive at Houston Hobby at 9:45 pm.

Of course, on Wed. morning there will be the good graze of the 
Pleaides star Taygeta, but at only 4% sunlit, the Moon/Sun altitude 
combination won't be as good for it as for mu Arietis.  But it is a 
brighter star, worth a good effort.  For it, Accuweather is 
predicting just scattered clouds at Del Rio and Hamilton, but partly 
cloudy (& some rain) in Dallas, and quite cloudy at Junction.  There 
are also other Pleiades occultations and grazes that morning, 
especially a good Maia graze over Salt Lake City; see the RASC 
Observer's Handbook or http://iota.jhuapl.edu/grazemap.htm .  Rick 
Frankenberger (see above, Tilden expedition, for his contact info.) 
has made extensive preparations for the Taygeta graze, with much 
detailed information in a 1.7-megabyte Word file that I can send you 
on request, and which I'll post on my Web site. 

2007 June 11, 6:30 UT
David Dunham, dunham@starpower.net, 301-474-4722, cell 301-526-5590
Office david.dunham@jhuapl.edu phone 240-228-5609
_____________________________

From: David Dunham [dunham@starpower.net]
Sent: Monday, June 11, 2007 2:30 PM
Subject: mu Ari tonight, Taygeta Wed. am, updates

The new Astro Meteo forecast is good enough that I still plan to 
proceed with my plans to fly to Houston to try to observe tomorrow 
morning's graze of mu Arietis.  It shows scattered thin clouds and 
slightly less transparency east of about Columbus, TX, with clear 
skies and a little better transparency west to Tilden, but then some 
decrease in transparency again west of Tilden.  But also, the map of 
relative humidity shows that it is higher west of Columbus than east 
of there.  So I think for now it is best to proceed with two 
expeditions, mine to east of Waller as described before (Site A), 
and Rick Frankenberger's to Tilden; with two separate efforts, at 
least one will hopefully succeed.  It looks like it's too warm for 
"adiabatic cooling" clouds to form, except perhaps farther inland, 
well northwest away from the path.  The surface temp. forecasts are 
a few deg. above the dew point so hopefully there won't be much 
ground fog; the Columbus area, near a large river, seems to be 
wetter and I think may be more prone to ground fog than the Waller 
area. 

The Astro Meteo forecast for this morning was rather accurate; there 
were scattered high clouds at the Houston airports at 10h UT, and 
automated stations at small airports that seemed to be near Waller 
and Conroe were clear.  The surface reports indicated cloudier skies 
in San Antonio, Austin, and Waco, but there was no station near 
Tilden to say what happened there. 

To get to the A sites from Houston, take US 290 towards the 
northwest.  As you approach the small town of Hockley 4 miles east 
of Waller, US 290 bends right away from US 290; follow 290 for about 
0.4 mile to the Hegar Rd. exit.  Go north on Hegar Rd. to the 
meeting intersection. That is now shown in this Power Point file.
Bob Sandy plans to visit the area this evening; if necessary, we 
might use other roads crossed by the path towards the southwest, so 
if possible, keep in touch by cell phone. I hope to get a motel room 
in Waller; hopefully, it will have wifi for sending more messages 
and checking both the last Astro Meteo forecast, the IR satellite 
images, and airport surface reports.  If not wifi, I can get e-mail 
sent to my office e-mail, david.dunham@jhuapl.edu on my Blackberry. 

The heights above sea level are small enough that I did not take 
that shift, quite insignificant, into account with elevations less 
than 60m from the Columbus to the Conroe areas.  It seems to be 
about 200m near Tilden. 

David Dunham, cell 301-526-5590