Occultation (Eclipse) of the star TYC 0728-01958-1 by (663) Gerlinde on Oct. 29 - New 2007 Oct. 26, 21h UT

The star in northwestern Orion can be seen with 4-inch telescopes

Help us measure the size and shape of the asteroid (663) Gerlinde Monday morning; clear skies forecast, e. Idaho to cen. Calif.

     We need your help to observe the next relatively bright 
(visible with 4-inch telescopes) North American asteroidal 
occultation, of a 9.5-mag. star north of Betelgeuse by the 101-km 
asteroid (663) Gerlinde that will occur Monday morning, Oct. 29th, 
the 50th anniversary of my beta Capricorni near-graze observation in 
southern California that ignited my quest to compute and observe 
these events.  I'm returning to that region to measure Gerlinde's 
size and shape, and hope that you might be able to help. The path, 
extending from the north-northeast to south-southwest, passes over 
southern Saskatchewan (Regina near center) at 12:59 UT (in bright 
twilight, Sun alt. -7 deg., but with the high star altitude and 
ability to find the star in darkness half an hour before, that 
should not be a problem; the event occurs in darker conditions 
farther southwest, especially in central Calif., where astronomical 
twilight will just be starting).  At 13:00 UT (7:00 am MDT), the 
path crosses central Montana; at 13:01, eastern and south-central 
Idaho, and n.e. Nevada; at 13:02 UT (6:02 am PDT), central Nevada to 
the Sierras east of Fresno with Bishop, Calif. near center; and at 
13:03 UT (6:03 am PDT), over the San Joaquin Valley with Fresno just 
outside the n.w. limit and Bakersfield just outside the s.e. limit 
(with the prediction uncertainties, either city has a good chance 
for an occultation) and over the central coast, with San Luis Obispo 
and Santa Maria in the path. 

Accuweather is forecasting clear skies along the path from eastern 
Idaho to the California coast; apparently, light winds will likely 
prevent marine clouds in the coastal areas.  Unfortunately, mostly 
cloudy skies are forecast for s. Saskatchewan.

The target star is in northeast Orion, 7 deg. north of Betelgeuse 
and 2.4 deg. west of 4th-mag. nu Orionis, at J2000 RA 5h 57m 51.1s, 
Dec. +14 deg. 48' 12".  The target is also 1.4 deg. east-northeast 
of 5th-mag. 137 Tauri and only 7' north of an 8th-mag. star that is 
shown on Steve Preston's charts (see below) but surprizingly is not 
in either the SAO or PPM catalogs.  The target star is also the 
northeastern component of a wide (separation about 1') double, with 
the other component slightly fainter.  For path maps and detailed 
finder charts of different scales, see Steve Preston's Web page. A 
central occultation is expected to last 13s with a 5-mag. drop.  The 
gibbous (84% sunlit) Moon will be 15 deg. away (near El Nath), so it 
will brighten the background view in finder scopes, but should pose 
little problem, especially for telescopic views, either visually or 
with video.  The event will occur high (almost 60 deg.) above the 
southwestern horizon. 

PLANNING COVERAGE TO DETERMINE GERLINDE'S SIZE & SHAPE

     Let me know your plans to observe this occultation; a few 
already have, indicated in the list below.  If the weather is good, 
as the current forecast says it will be, I hope to set up 3 stations 
across the path near I-5 but I want to select locations that will 
avoid your line.  Consult Derek Breit's global Web site (see below 
for the link) for station lists to see the possible coverage of the 
event, to get the distance from the central line predicted for your 
location (as well as the predicted UT, probability for an 
occultation, and circumstances) as well as the interactive Google 
Map of the event to plot offset lines for mobile site selection or 
determine distances from the central line for observers who might 
not be in the station list.  Below I give some information about 
local circumstances for known stations within and near the path from 
which observations might be made.  NOTE MOST OF THE STATIONS BELOW 
ARE ONLY POTENTIAL OBSERVING SITES; JUST BECAUSE THERE ARE MANY IS 
NOT AN EXCUSE FOR YOU NOT TO OBSERVE, SINCE IN FACT NO OBSERVATIONS 
WILL BE MADE FROM MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS.  PLEASE ATTEMPT AN 
OBSERVATION IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE 2-SIGMA LIMITS; AN OCCULTATION 
COULD OCCUR AT YOUR LOCATION AND YOU COULD DETERMINE A VALUABLE 
CHORD FOR DETERMINING Gerlinde'S SIZE AND SHAPE.  Between the 
"distance from center" and "Prob." columns, I give codes for those 
who have said they will try to observe this occultation, V for fixed 
video observer; * for fixed visual observer; M for mobile video 
observer; and ? for unknown, can't now count on an observation being 
made there, but it would be very useful if an observation could be 
attempted there.

Occultation of TYC 0728-01958-1 by 663 Gerlinde on 2007 Oct 29 
[Prediction of 2007 Oct 23.1]

Distance (+ north of center, - south of center)
from                                                 
center,                                    Universal  Sun 
in    Prob.                                   Time    Alt
km      %    Observer and/or location        h  m  s    o
 200    0 ** Northern limit plus 3-Sigma **
 196    0 Hollistr CA David Baumgartner     13  3  4  -17
 190 ?  0 Dayton   CA Red Sumner            13  2 31  -16
 187    0 Sleaford Observatory, SK- Huziak  12 59 40   -9
 179 ?  1 MIRA Obs CA MIRA Oliver Observ.   13  3 11  -17
 151    2 ** Northern limit plus 2-Sigma **              
 129    6 Butte MT                          13  0 56  -12
 101   16 ** Northern limit plus 1-Sigma **              
  93   20 Madera   CA Ken Simmons           13  2 58  -16
  80 M 28 D. Dunham remote near I5
  65 ? 39 Fresno   CA Clarence Funk         13  2 58  -16
  62   41 Atascdro CA Lee Combs             13  3 16  -16
  60 ? 42 Cuesta College, S.L.O., Calif.    13  3 18  -16
  52   48 ***  Northern limit  ***                       
  40 ? 56 Genet Obs - Russ Genet            13  3 17  -16
  38   58 Moose Jaw SK                      12 59 53   -8
  34   60 Arroyo Grande, CA  Jamie Foster   13  3 20  -16
  23 M 70 D. Dunham remote near I5 (if problems, just 1
   6 M 70 D. Dunham remote near I5  station at +14)
   0   71 **** Centre Line    ****                       
  -1   71 Tulare   CA TAA Ken Copeland      13  3  3  -15
  -6   70 Regina, SK       Bergbush,Beech   12 59 50   -8
 -10   70 Regina, SK       Vance Petriew    12 59 50   -7
 -11 V 69 Bishop        CA Stoffaire~Jim    13  2 46  -15
 -22   66 CarrizoP CA Nolthenius mobile     13  3 17  -16
 -22   66 3 Rivers CA Ken Fields            13  2 58  -15
 -42 V 55 SPRINGVILLE   CA SANFORD~JOHN     13  3  0  -15
 -42 * 55 Springvi Ca 2003_718Ron Royer     13  3  1  -15
 -47 ? 52 Springvi CA 99 3_3Billie Chandl   13  3  2  -15
 -52   48 ***  Southern limit  ***                       
 -67   37 E E Barnard Obs  Allan Morton     13  1 14  -11
 -70 M 35 D. Dunham mobile
 -74   32 SantaBarbara CA                   13  3 24  -15
 -76   30 EastBakrsfieldCA Oliver2~Don      13  3 10  -15
 -87   23 Pocatello ID                      13  1 26  -11
 -90   22 Carpenteria CA Ed Edwards  10     13  3 24  -15
 -90   22 668 San Emigdio Peak              13  3 17  -15
-101 ? 16 LockwoodValleyCA EDBERG~STEVE     13  3 18  -15
-101   16 ** Southern limit plus 1-Sigma **              
-107   13 665 Wallis Observatory            13  3 17  -15
-114 ? 10 Ventura  CA V. A. S.              13  3 24  -15
-114 ? 10 669 Ojai                          13  3 21  -15
-134 ?  5 Fillmore CA DreamWeaverObCMorri   13  3 21  -15
-137    4 670 Camarillo                     13  3 24  -15
-140 ?  4 CamarilloCA Gary Goodman          13  3 24  -15
-144    3 VALENCIA      CA MEDEARIS~JERRY   13  3 18  -15
-148 ?  3 NewburyP CA Robert J. Stine       13  3 24  -15
-149    2 666 Moorpark College Observator   13  3 22  -15
-151    2 ** Southern limit plus 2-Sigma **              
-153 ?  2 Castaic       CA ANET~FRANK       13  3 19  -15
-158    2 Simi Valley   CA Veronica~Jim     13  3 22  -15
-162 ?  1 Ridgcrst CA CARROLL L. EVANS JR   13  3  2  -14
-163    1 G70 Francisquito Observatory, L   13  3 19  -15
-164    1 Castaic  CA S.ClaritaV D.Engles   13  3 19  -15
-172    1 Northridge CA Jim Miller          13  3 21  -15
-181    0 Lancastr CA AVAC Stephen Mathis   13  3 15  -14
-186    0 453 Edwards Raven Observatory     13  3 10  -14
-196    0 Burbank  CA George Willis         13  3 21  -14
-200    0 ** Southern limit plus 3-Sigma **

     I'll be flying to Burbank late Sat. Oct. 27. On Sunday, if the 
weather forecast remains good, early Sunday afternoon I'd like to 
stop somewhere between Burbank and Castaic to get internet access 
for receiving and distributing any late updates for the station 
coverage; any help from observers in that area with this would be 
greatly appreciated.  I will not be able to update this Web page; 
later updates will be distributed by e-mail.
_________                                    

For all 2007 "Preston" events worldwide, very detailed maps are on 
Derek Breit's interactive Web page that links to the very detailed 
maps and satellite imagery of maps.google.com with overlays of the 
occultation paths and their 1-sigma uncertainty zones.  Also on that 
Web site are station lists giving local circumstances, for many 
observer stations, now including all of the MPC observatories and 
other sites in an expanded list of stations.  It gives the predicted 
time of the event, distance from the updated central line, 
probability that an occultation will occur there, and altitudes of 
the star and the Sun.  If your station is not in that list, please 
let me and Derek, breit_ideas@hotmail.com , know so that you can be 
added to future lists.  Also on this site are lists of stars, mostly 
brighter than the target star, that can be used before the event to 
pre-point stationary (non-tracking) telescopes. 

Much information about observing occultations of all types is in 
"Chasing the Shadow:  The IOTA Occultation Observer's Manual" 
available for free here.  Much information about asteroidal 
occultations in general is on 
Brad Timerson's asteroidal occultation page, with info. about 
reporting observations, etc. 

     North American observers are encouraged to find updated 
asteroidal occultation paths near them by consulting the maps and 
associated tables on Derek Breit's N. American paths Web page.

I also recommend software called Occult Watcher that you can install 
on your computer.  With it, you input your position and it searches 
Steve Preston's predition Web site, informing you of all asteroidal 
occultations in your region during the next 4-5 weeks, giving 
probabilities and other details.  Whenever a path is updated, the 
software lets you know.  It also has provision for you to specify 
your observing intentions, and these are displayed along with those 
of other observers to help plan the overall coverage for the event.  
Hristo Pavlov in Sydney, Australia wrote this program; you can get it
here.

Note that the path predictions are not perfect, they can shift due 
to mainly now to stellar proper motion errors that are increasing 
with time from the 1991 mean epoch of the Hipparcos satellite 
observations.  So observers not just within the predicted path, but 
also north and south of it, at least within the 1-sigma uncertainty 
zones shown by the dashed lines on the maps on Steve Preston's Web 
site, should also watch for, and preferably be prepared to record 
and/or time, an occultation.  Sometimes (less often, but not 
impossible) shifts of 2-sigma can and do occur, so observers a 
little outside the 1-sigma lines are also encouraged to observe.
Theoretically, the actual path will be within the 1-sigma lines 67% 
of the time, and within the 2-sigma lines 95% of the time.
________________________________________________

David Dunham, 2007 Oct. 26, 21h UT
Phones home 301-474-4722; office 240-228-5609; cell 301-526-5590 
office e-mail david.dunham@jhuapl.edu with Blackberry for mobile use
home e-mail:  dunham@starpower.net .