Only miss observations made of Aug. 8th 447 Valentine occultation

New: August 13 at 19h UT
      So far, still only miss observations have been reported, from the
locations given below (those with * in Col. C).

Dist.     U.T. W.Long.  Lat.    h City/  Country    Observer or
  km   C h   m     o      o     m  Town             Observatory

  108N -- northern limit with very possible 1-sigma north shift
   44N * 7 27.5  76.623 39.332 140 Baltimore, MD JHU Bloomberg Obs.24in.
   43N --7 27.2  77.000 39.532 *** Northern Limit *** Preston point
   36N * 7 27.1  77.081 39.505 235 Marston, MD       M.Ob,C.Roelle,12"
   21N * 7 27.5  76.674 39.102  43 New Cut Rd, MD    Joe Sedlak, 11cm refl.
   21N *                           Richmond Hgts., OH Bob Modic
    5N *                           Goddard Opt. Site Wayne H. Warren, Jr.
   28S * 7 27.5  76.834 38.658   0 Dent&BOakRds, MD  CedarvStPk,D.Dunham
   43S --  *** predicted southern limit ***
   49S * 7 21.9  85.351 42.915 262 Lowell, Michigan  Optec Obs., 10in.
   57S * 7 24.3  81.407 40.883 342 N. Canton, OH     Dick Emmons
   90S * 7 12.2 113.400 51.215 970 n.of Calgary, AB  Gary Billings
  108S -- southern limit with very possible 1-sigma south shift
  176S * 7 18.2  92.924 44.829   0 AFTON    MN       JAMES H. FOX
  192S -- southern limit with possible 2-sigma south shift

With the rather extensive coverage on the south side of the path, I
think it's more likely that the actual shadow passed at least 1
path-width north of Steve Preston's prediction, with Alin Tolea's
observation only 1 km north of the northern limit being the
northernmost observation so far.  Especially more observations
farther north are sought.  I'm copying this to Ron Stone to see if
he might obtain a few FASTT observations after the fact; that should
allow us to "post-dict" the path fairly accurately, and maybe get
some idea of specifically why the prediction was this far in error.
Many thanks to all of those who monitored, or tried to monitor, the
star around the predicted time.  The event occurred near a 
stationary point in RA (much slower than usual motion), where I have 
found astrometric errors to be larger than usual for past events, 
and also no accurate observations of the asteroid were made after
2001 Sept. 1, contributing to the current inaccuracy.

David Dunham, 2002 Aug. 9, 3h UT