Aspasia Occultation Wide Path This Evening, Ariz. to NJ - New 2005 Sept. 28

The weather forecast is good for the Mid-Atlantic States, with the path crossing most of Maryland, Virginia, and DC

      We could still use some help for the occultation by (409)
Aspasia this evening.  Below is the station list of observers who
have said that they will try the occultation.  The data for many
more stations can be found on Derek Breit's Web site; 
you can get the time of closest approach, and altitudes of the star 
and Sun above and below your horizon there.  Search for your, or 
your location's, name to get your information.  A Word version of 
Derek's station list, possibly for easier searching and printing, 
is here.  As noted in last night's message, you can see 
in great detail where lines of different distances (that you can 
specify in km from the predicted central line) cross local highways 
on Charlie Ridgway's interactive Web page.  See that message 
(below) for other links, information about the star, etc. 

      The Clear Sky Clock (CSC) forecast is similar to what I
described yesterday, but better in central Tennessee and some of
Texas around Dallas and west of there; and a little worse in
Arkansas.  A small front is approaching the Mid-Atlantic States from
the northwest and is supposed to bring some rain to the DC area
later in the night, but it will be mostly over West Virginia at the
time of the Aspasia event, with still mostly clear skies for most of
Virginia and most of Maryland.  A new forecast will become available
on the Environment Canada site (on which CSC is based) by about 17h
UT (1 pm EDT) and I will check that and the visual satellite loop to
make a final decision about deploying.  After 19h UT, I'll only be 
reachable by cell phone at 301-526-5590 until a few hours after the 
occultation. I plan to set up at sites along MD5 and MD235 southeast 
of Washington, DC, but could switch to the Eastern Shore along US 
50, or Virginia along I-95, if the weather prospects look better 
either east or west.  Note that the 10 deg. altitude in the DC 
region makes it difficult to find sites with a good view, also away 
from light pollution. 

      I will check this e-mail about last at 13h UT, then can be
reached at my office at david.dunham@jhuapl.edu.  I hope to check my
mail here one last time at about 19h UT (3 pm EDT) before driving to
the sites.

      In the list below, M is a mobile video observer, m is mobile
visual, V is fixed-site video, * is fixed-site visual, ? means
uncertain that an observation will be made for weather or other
various reasons, and W or w means CSC is predicting mostly cloudy
skies for the area, for a video or visual observer, respectively.

Steve Preston's 08/20/05 Update
Occultation of TYC 6219-00862-1 by 409 Aspasia on 2005 Sep 29 UT

Dist.Proba-  U.T.  Alt  Sun Location                        Longitude Latitude
  km bility h   m    o    o                                    o   '    o   '
 228-- 16%                  ** Northern limit plus 1-sigma **
 215 V 19%  1 41.2  25  -18 STILLWAT OK ART LUCAS           - 97  8.2  36  3.6
 122-- 49%                  *** Predicted Northern limit ***
 100 V 57%  1 41.7  10  -32 Marston  MD Obs.,Curt Roelle    - 77  4.8  39 30.3
  87 V 61%  1 41.7  11  -31 StephnsC VA John Brooks         - 78 11.7  39  5.2
  12 W 75%  1 40.8  32  -10 Rincon NM mobile R Richins      -106 59.8 +32 43.7
   0-- 75%                  **** Centre Line    ****
  -5 ? 75%  1 41.5  19  -26 SPOT Obs     M Manner           - 87 33.0  35 53.4
  -8 ? 75%  1 40.7  35   -7 TUCSON   AZ CRAWFORD~ROBERT W.  -110 45.0  32 11.3
 -20 M 74%  1 41.8  10  -33 David Dunham mobile
 -32 * 73%  1 41.7  13  -31 Fincastl VA John Goss RVAS      - 79 58.2  37 28.4
 -34 V 73%  1 41.6  18  -27 Murfreesboro, TN  S Degenhardt  - 86 21.3  35 53.8
 -35 W 73%  1 40.9  33  -10 LasCrucs NM Robert A. James     -106 47.7  32 19.4
 -55 M 69%  1 41.8  10  -33 unlikely MD Dunham remote #2    -076 19.2 +38 02.5
 -75 M 64%  1 41.8  10  -33 Point Lookout, MD Dunham remote -076 19.2 +38 02.5
-122-- 49%                  *** Predicted Southern limit ***
-123 ? 49%  1 41.7  14  -30 BlueRidgeNC D.Caton,DarkSkyObs  - 81 24.7  36 15.1
-228-- 16%                  ** Southern limit plus 1-sigma **
_____________________________________

David Dunham, 2005 Sept. 28 am
phones home 301-474-4722; office 240-228-5609; cell  301-526-5590
office email david.dunham@jhuapl.edu

********************************************************************

Message with more information from Tuesday morning, Sept. 27:

     I need your help to determine the size and shape of the 
relatively large (about 160 km) asteroid (409) Aspasia when it 
occults an 11.0-mag. star 3 deg. east of 2.5-mag. eta Ophiuchi 
(Sabik) Wednesday evening from southern Arizona to 
Virginia/Maryland/Delaware/DC.  Please let me know if you can try to 
observe the occultation from either fixed locations or with mobile 
equipment.  Those of us who are mobile don't want to duplicate your 
chord.

     The path can be seen on Steve Preston's Web site.
It starts in bright twilight over Tucson and other parts of 
southeastern Arizona, at 1:40 UT of Sept. 29 UT, then over the 
southern 1/3rd of New Mexico (7:40 pm MDT of the 28th).  In the 
whole path farther east, the event will occur at 1:41 UT (8:41 pm 
CDT or 9:41 pm EDT), passing over northern Texas with Dallas-Ft. 
Worth near the s. limit, southern Oklahoma, most of Arkansas, 
Tennessee and southern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, most of 
Virginia (maybe not the Norfolk area, but it's possible there), 
Maryland, Delaware, and Washington, DC.  The nothern limit extends 
farther east, across New Jersey, Long Island, and Cape Cod, with a 
chance for an event in the populous are north of it (NYC, Conn., 
Boston), but altitude, less than 9 deg. there, will make 
observation difficult.  Very detailed maps for these events can be 
found on Charlie Ridgway's interactive Web page with link given 
above; it links to the very detailed maps and satellite imagery of 
maps.google.com with overlays of the occultation paths.  You can 
enter an offset distance in km to see individual tracks.  On his 
Web site, the central line is yellow, the northern and southern 
limits are blue, and the 1-sigma limits are purple/heliotrope.  The 
offset lines are gray. 

     The star, TYC 6219-00862-1, is at J2000 RA 16h 57m 55.2s, 
Dec. -16 deg. 29' 35".  A few 10th and 11th-mag. stars are nearby, 
with a 6.5-mag. star half a deg. southwest of the target star. 
Detailed finder charts of different scales are on Steve Preston's 
Web site given above.  If an occultation occurs, a 1.7-magnitude 
drop lasting up to 6 seconds is predicted.  

     For coverage planning purposes, an extensive list of stations 
ordered by distance from the predicted central line is on Derek 
Breit's Web site with link above.  You can search for your, or your 
town's, name to see just when the occultation is predicted for your 
area (that time should be accurate to within 10 - 15 seconds), and 
the predicted Sun and star altitudes at the time; the Moon will be 
below the horizon.  If your location is not in the list, and you are 
within the 3-sigma limits of the occultation, send me information 
about your location and we'll add it. 

     Clear Sky Clock's forecast now extends out to 0h UT Sept. 29, 
just 1.7 hours before the event.  It shows that it will be clear, or 
mostly so, in the Mid-Atlantic area east of the Appalachians; partly 
cloudy across Tenn., Kentucky, & W.Va.; clear over central & s.
Arkansas; cloudy from s. Missouri to s.e. Okla. and n.-central Texas
north of Dallas/Ft. Worth; clear in central Okla.; mostly cloudy 
farther west in Texas and over New Mexico; and clear in Arizona.  
But this could change.

     As noted above, please let me know your plans; I'll distribute 
tomorrow night (late Tues. evening) an edited version of D. Breit's 
list with only observers who have said they'll try to observe this 
occultation.  Mobile observers can use Ridgway's Web site, placing 
an assigned distance as their offset distance to find and zoom in
on locations to observe the event.  Especially I want to know who in 
the Mid-Atlantic region will be trying from fixed locations.  The 
northern limit passes just s. of Hagerstown, MD and York, PA (but 
those places could very well be within the actual path), while the 
central line passes north of Fredericksburg, VA and Waldorf, MD, and 
the southern limit over Chester, VA just south of Richmond.   Let me 
know if you'd be interested in helping my mobile effort south of 
Washington, DC.  I plan to observe from two sites somewhere between 
Waldorf and Point Lookout, MD, but could run a 3rd video system on 
someone else's 8-inch or larger scope.  We'll need to leave the DC 
area before afternoon rush hour (before about 3 pm) and set up the 
telescopes at safe locations in daylight so that the short time of 
darkness (just under 2 hours from nautical twilight to the event) 
can be used to find target star fields (west of the target star) and 
travel between the sites.  We can spread out at most over a distance 
of about 60 miles. 
_____________________________________ 

There are more opportunities in the DC region next month and next 
week - click here for more about them.  We will not be trying
the good graze over Nags Head, NC Friday morning, Sept. 30, but may 
be able to provide information for any others who might want to try 
it.
_____________________________________ 

David Dunham, 2005 Sept. 27 am
phones home 301-474-4722; office 240-228-5609; cell  301-526-5590
office email david.dunham@jhuapl.edu