Occultation (Eclipse) of TYC 0032-00866-1 by (261) Prymno on Oct. 7 - Updated 2007 Oct. 8, 18h UT

The DC-area expedition was cancelled due to dew in s. VA

Some plans for the event were made at the Virginia Association of Astronomical Societies meeting on Sat. October 6

The 3rd Astro Meteo forcast showed clouds extending from Richmond, 
VA south across most of eastern & central N. Carolina; that forecast 
was appently rather accurate.  High relative humidity, with temp. 
only 1-2 deg. above the dew point, was forcast for areas westward 
towards the Appalachian Mountains, and those conditions threatened 
at least patchy low clouds and fog similar to the thick fog we had 
duriong the previous 2 nights; the National Weather Service 
forecaster said a slight eastward component remained with the wind 
that would again bring in moisture from the Atlantic and prevent 
drying out in the area.  With this poor prospect, I decided not to 
try to observe the occultation from southern Virginia.  The IR 
images at the time show no clouds across the region, but they do not 
show low clouds.  The surface reports said it was mostly cloudy or 
misty at Richmond and overcast at Petersburg; the automated station 
at Emporia also said it was overcast.  Somewhat better conditions 
were reported at the automated stations at Lynchburg and Danville, 
where I was considering going, but they reported high humidity and 
dew point only a deg. below the temp., conditions ripe for low 
clouds and fog that probably formed over most adjacent areas; 
airports with large areas of cleared vegetation tend to be a little 
drier than most areas.

An observer in western N.C. planned to try the event, but didn't 
read my recent messages in time, thinking the event was a day later 
(night of Oct. 7 rather than morning) until he realized his mistake 
later on Sunday.  It was clear in northern Alabama, and David Nance 
observed visually from his home in Madison where he reported a miss.
___________________________________ 

The file for the presentation that I gave on observing occultations 
at the meeting of the Virginia Association of Astronomical Societies 
is here (14.5 megabytes).  I showed videos of the occultation of a star whose close 
duplicity was discovered during the occultation that you can read 
about and see here, and about the spectacular graze of another close 
double star, mu Arietis, observed in Texas in June.  I also showed 
one of the video segments of the graze of 59 Leonis during the total 
lunar eclipse last March recorded from the Virginia part of the 
Delmarva; that event was also observed by Richmond Astronomical 
Society members north of Richmond. 
___________________________________ 

The rest of this page gives pre-event information as of Oct. 6 at 3h 
UT.

Help us measure the size and shape of the asteroid (261) Prymno 
Sunday morning, October 7!  Observers across southern Virginia, 
western N. Carolina, and west to central Texas can find a 10th-mag. 
star a deg. south of nu Piscium and time its sudden disappearance 
and reappearance as the 50-km asteroid (261) Prymno covers the star 
for at least a few seconds.  The path passes over s.e. and s.central 
Virginia at 7:45 UT (3:45 am EDT); then at 7:46 UT over w. North 
Carolina, s.e. Tenn., the n.w. corner of Georgia, and n. Alabama 
(Huntsville); at 7:47 UT (2:47 am CDT), over n. Miss., the s.e. 
corner of Arkansas, n. Louisiana (Shreveport), and easternmost Texas 
(Nacogdoches); at 7:48 UT, over central Texas between Austin and 
Waco (with path uncertainties, either city could have an 
occultation) and n. of Del Rio; at 7:49 UT (1:49 am MDT), over Big 
Bend Park, TX and n. Mexico just s. of Chihuahua; and at 7:50 UT, 
over Baja California sur near Loreto.  Maps of the path are in pages 
2-4 of this Power Point file, including Steve Preston's North 
American path map (view as seen from the asteroid), then more 
detailed Google maps generated from Derek Breit's web site showing 
the path across the USA, and in more detail across Virginia.

On Oct. 6, Sat., I plan to give a talk/workshop on occultations at this 
year's meeting of the Virginia Association of Astronomical Societies 
(VAAS), hosted this Saturday, Oct. 6, by the Northern Virginia 
Astronomy Club (NOVAC) at C. M. Crockett State Park west of 
Manassas, VA; for details, see http://www.novac.com/vaas/ .  The 
current weather forecast is good, and if that continues, after my 
talk I plan to drive to southern Virginia to set up stations from 
near Richmond to the North Carolina border to record the relatively 
good (261) Prymno occultation that night (actually, Sun. am, Oct. 
7).  

I hope that other observers in s. Virginia, w. North Carolina, and 
elsewhere along the path west to Texas and maybe event Baja can try 
this reasonably good event as well; let me know if you plan to 
observe so I can avoid duplicating your line and we can obtain the 
best coverage across Prymno.   A central occultation by the 51-km 
asteroid would last 4.6s with an easily-seen 2.5-mag. drop to the 
12.7-mag. of Prymno.  The 14% sunlit crescent Moon will be 125 deg. 
away from the target and thus no problem, with the event occurring 
before moonrise for most observers.  The target star will be more 
than 45 deg. above the horizon along the path in North America.

In any case, please let me know if you might try to observe this 
occultation from at or near home, or if you might be mobile, so we 
can effectively target mobile observers to avoid duplication of 
observations by fixed-site observers.  

I'll update the long station list below to show plans with a future 
message after receiving responses from potential observers.  Even 
better, I recommend installing new software called Occult Watcher, 
where you input your position and it searches Steve Preston's 
predition Web site, informing you of all asteroidal occultations in 
your region during the next 4-5 weeks, giving probabilities and 
other details.  Whenever a path is updated, the software lets you 
know.  It also has provision for you to specify your observing 
intentions, and these are displayed along with those of other 
observers to help plan the overall coverage for the event.  Hristo 
Pavlov in Sydney, Australia wrote this program; you can get it here. 

FINDING THE TARGET STAR

The star is at J2000 RA 1h 41m 19.7s, Dec +4 deg. 14' 4", 1 1/4 deg. 
s. of 4th-mag. nu Piscium and about 5 deg. west of 3rd-mag. 
alpha Piscium (Alrescha).  Detailed finder charts of different scales 
and a map showing the path across the USA are at Steve Preston's page 
for the event here.  I have put Steve Preston's charts 
in this Power Point file, which for some may be easier to view and 
print.

Additional useful information is on Derek Breit's Web site
 - scroll down to the line for this event on UT Oct. 7 at 7h UT, 
then click on "GoogleMap" for the interactive Google map of the path 
that you can zoom in on it to great detail.  If you double-click 
inside the map on the place where you want to observe, the 
coordinates and distance from center of the location will appear at 
the bottom of the map (with + for north and - for south). Click on 
"Sites" for a long list of stations sorted by distance from the 
central line, giving the predicted time of the occultation at the 
site, and the Sun & star altitudes at the time, and the probability 
for an occultation there (if your site is not in the list, either 
you are not within 3-sigma of having an occultation, or you may not 
be in the master list - to check the latter, contact Derek Breit at 
breit_ideas@hotmail.com).  The list uses accurate coordinates 
provided to us for the calculations, but the list only displays the 
coordinates to the nearest 5' for privacy concerns.  A shortened 
version of the list is below.  Let me know if your station is not on 
the list; if you can provide coordinates or a postal address, we can 
add your location.  

Clicking on "stars" gives a list of stars that can be used to pre-
point a stationary telescope to the direction of the occultation 
star before the event.  It gives offset times relative to (before) 
the time of the occultation.  I've applied those offset times to 
7h 45m 44s UT, the time that the occultation is predicted to occur 
in Richmond, VA and other sites along I-95 in s. VA, to create 
this list where also I've added the identifications of stars with 
Flamsteed numbers and Bayer greek letters.

WEATHER

The 2nd Astro Meteo cloud cover, transparency, and relative 
humidity maps are shown in the last 3 pages of this Power Point file.
The best area will be northern Mexico and Baja, but a Bermuda high 
will also be centered over Tennessee so that it should be 
relatively clear from the Atlantic shore of the Delmarva Peninsula 
to the Mississippi River, except for a patch of cloud predicted to 
cover south-central Virginia (up to Richmond) and the central and 
eastern Carolinas.  Much cloudiness is forecast from Dallas to 
Houston, with relatively clear sky from I-35 to Del Rio (but the 
forecast might not take into account the adiabatic cooling clouds 
that often form over central Texas) and partly cloudy skies over n. 
Louisiana.  If the clouds in s. central VA are still predicted with 
later forecasts, I may switch my planned stations eastward to either 
along US 17 or to the Delmarva, trying to observe from the "M" 
equivalent distant from the central line sites as given in the 
station list below, except that I would not be able to do the 
southernmost one then (too close to Norfolk). The mornings have been 
quite moist recently with heavy fog, but it's supposed to dry out a 
little over the weekend.  But I'll check to see what happens Sat. 
morning relative to the forecast, and will also ask the National 
Weather Service forecaster tomorrow afternoon about the possibility 
of fog & low clouds developing by the time of the occultation, and I 
may scale back my effort if fog is expected to be widespread.  Note 
that a new Astro Meteo forecast will become available Sat. afternoon. 
_________________________________ 

Those well away from the path might also watch for a possible 
occultation by a possible satellite; in general, there's some chance 
for this within 10 path-widths of the central line, and for 10 times 
the central duration (almost a minute in this case) before and after 
the predicted time of closest approach for your location (you can 
see that for your location in the station list, or you can estimate 
it well enough from the path description above, or from Steve 
Preston's North American map; the 1-sigma uncertainty in the 
occultation time is less than 0.1 minute.  Any event should be 
timed, even if only approximately, but do the best you can; timing 
methods are described here. 

Much more information about asteroidal occultations in general is 
here.  Please go to that link to get information for your site and 
help us measure the sizes and shapes of these asteroids.  

For reporting observations, even if the star is monitored and no 
occultation is seen, you should use the new report forms that you 
can get here and click on "Templates for Report Forms".  Completed 
reports should be sent to reports@asteroidoccultation.com and copied 
to Jan Manek at jan.manek@worldonline.cz .  
_________________________________ 

STATION LIST

Below is a partial list of stations, similar to station lists that 
I've distributed for previous events.  So far, I know of no other 
observers who have definite plans to observe this occultation, so I 
include places where I will probably observe, and "?" for the 
locations of some others who I hope will try to observe this event 
from the indicated location.  I use "M" (mobile video) for my 
possible locations.  All observers especially within the "2-sigma" 
limits are encouraged to observe, at least from convenient near-home 
locations, and of course much farther away for checking for 
satellites. NOTE THAT THIS IS MOSTLY A LIST OF POTENTIAL OBSERVERS 
AND POSSIBLE OBSERVING STATIONS; I'M SURE THAT NO OBSERVATION WILL 
BE MADE FROM MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS, SO ANY OBSERVATION THAT YOU 
CAN MAKE WILL BE VALUABLE.  Below, codes between the "Probability 
(Prob.)" column and the location, observer is * for visual 
observers, V for video, m for mobile visual, and M for mobile video.  
w is for a visual observer likely to be clouded out while W is 
similar for a video observers.  So far, apparently no observers have 
claimed any lines with Occult Watcher.
                                                     
Occultation of TYC 0032-00866-1 by 261 Prymno on 2007 Oct 07 
Distance from center of occultation path - in km
[Prediction of 2007 Sep 25.2]

      P                                              
      r                                              
Dist. o                                      U.T.     
from  b                                       7h 
center.   Location, observer                  and
  km  %                                      m  s
 112  0   ** Northern limit plus 3-Sigma **
 108  0   Fan Mtn Obs VA   Univ.ofVA 32in   45 52
 104  0   841 Martin Observatory, Blacksb   46  5
 102  0 * FincastleVA John Goss RVAS        46  1
  83  2   ** Northern limit plus 2-Sigma **      
  77  4 ? Roanoke  VA Michael Good RVAS     46  2
  77  4   Abingdon   VA                     46 15
  75  4   Salisbury MD                      45 33
  73  5 ? Oliver   VA Robert Oldham         45 45
  71  6   Chihuahua MX                      49 30
  70  6   KnoxvilleTN Nick Cook             46 28
  66  9 ? Konnarock  VA                     46 12
  63 10   Mike Fleenor                      46 30
  63 10 ? Ashland  VA  -   Keeble Obs       45 45
  55 16   ** Northern limit plus 1-Sigma **      
  54 17 M Hanover C.H. VA  Shell gas D. D   45 44
  48 23   H34 Chapel Hill                   47 56
  47 24 ? Richmond VA Randy Tatum vid.      45 45
  44 27   Mchncsvl VA Ken Wilson            45 44
  43 29   BELVIDER TN C.Smith c/oDegenhar   46 45
  42 29   850 Cordell-Lorenz Observatory,   46 43
  40 31   WACO          TX MCANALLY~JOHN W  48 13
  35 38   Cold Harbor VA   Ed's Nursery D   45 43
  31 43   Richmond Airpt V w.I295           45 44
  30 44   Blanchrd A  CLaude Baines         47 45
  27 47   ***  Northern limit  ***               
  26 49   922 Timberland Observatory, Dec   46 53
  25 51 M Varina Grove VA  w.I295 & VA5     45 44
  22 53   LORENA        TX BARTON~JOHNNY    48 12
  16 60 ? Ashevill NC D.Caton,DarkSkyObs    46 11
  15 60   Shreveport, LA   Terry Atwood     47 44
  15 61   Huntsville AL                     46 49
  12 63 ? Madison  AL David Nance           46 48
   9 65 ? MSFC Huntsville AL  Bill Cooke    46 49
   8 65   Loreto, Baja, Coughlin            50 21
   7 66   Chattanooga TN                    46 39
   4 66   Redstone AL Dave Lanteigne        46 48
   4 67   PETERSBURG  VA   possible site    45 44
   3 67   843 Emerald Lane Observatory, D   46 51
   3 67   w. N. Carolina   Mike Bruce       46  4
   0 67   **** Centre Line    ****               
  -2 67   New Bohemia VA   e.I295 & US460   45 44
  -3 67   Shreveport LA                     47 39
  -4 67   Rossville, GA    Paul Thennes     46 39
  -4 66   WILDWOOD      GA SMITH~NED        46 40
  -8 65   BrysonCy NC Simon Skiles          46 26
 -10 64   Wiliamsb VA William&Mary Col.     45 40
 -11 63   Templeton VA     w.I95 & VA35     45 44
 -16 60 M Carson VA        I95 exit         45 44
 -19 56 ? Asheville   NC       John C       46 20
 -25 50   Stony Creek VA   I95 n.exit       45 44
 -25 50   1983_529 R. Nacogdoches, TX       47 54
 -26 49   s. Ligui, rd.goes W., Coughlin    50 21
 -27 48   740 SFA Observatory, Nacogdoche   47 53
 -27 47   ***  Southern limit  ***               
 -32 42 ? Yorktown VA Michael Klosterman    45 38
 -34 39   WinstonSalem NC                   46  4
 -37 36   Cullman  AL Scott Smith           46 51
 -37 36   Hampton VA - Dave Kratz           45 38
 -38 34 ? Langley  VA Hampton 16in pe       45 38
 -39 34   CRANE HILL    AL SMITH~SCOTT AND  46 52
 -43 28   J. Petersen                       48 24
 -43 28 ? Smithfield VA - H $ K  Abramson   45 39
 -43 28   n. Emporia, VA   D. Dunham remo   45 45
 -46 25   Emporia VA       w.I95 & n.US58   45 46
 -46 25   SanAnton TX Jack Petersen   Aud   48 25
 -46 25   FrnchCA  MS c/o Scott Degenhard   47 11
 -48 23   757 High Point                    46  2
 -50 21   752 Puckett Observatory, Mounta   46 34
 -53 18   Austin,  TX Jim Walker, 8cm R     48 21
 -54 17   ELLIJAY       GA JOHNSON~RUSSELL  46 34
 -55 16   ** Southern limit plus 1-Sigma **      
 -56 16   1983_529 J. P. Powell, Nacogdoc   47 53
 -56 15   Suffolk  VA Tidewater CC Ob via   45 38
 -57 15 M Skippers VA      e.I95 & Moores   45 46
 -62 11   19991025 McCants, Bee Caves RC,   48 21
 -63 10 ? CHESAPEK VI DENNIS A. ROWLEY      45 38
 -63 10   Sexton        TX HARPER~ROCKY     47 48
 -64 10   Austin   TX Kirchhof, Rick 8in.   48 20
 -64 10   Austin, TX       MikeMcCants8in   48 20
 -65  9   Norfolk VA                        45 37
 -66  8 ? Greensbo NC David Connor,10mi.s   46  0
 -70  6   Salisbry NC Catawba C.Ob,Wilson   46  5
 -73  5   Chesapeake  VA Glendon Howell     45 38
 -80  3 ? s Burlin NC 3CollegesObs.Danfor   46  5
 -80  3   C. Constitucion, Baja, Coughlin   50 27
 -83  2   ** Southern limit plus 2-Sigma **      
 -88  2   ChapelHl NC MoreheadOb. Melvin    45 56
 -89  1   H32 Texas A&M Physics Observato   48  9
 -89  1   Dallas   NC - TAS                 46 10
 -90  1   725 Fair Oaks Ranch               48 28
 -90  1   SAN ANTONIO   TX SLATER~DAVID     48 28
 -93  1   Raleigh  NC Jerry Watson          45 55
-102  0 ? Concord  NC Roger Harvey          46  6
-103  0   Greenvil SC Furman Univ.          46 19
-103  0   Moyock, NC       possible site    45 37
-104  0   H47 Vicksburg                     47 23
-105  0   Spartanburg SC                    46 16
-106  0   Birmingham AL                     46 52
-107  0 ? CARY          NC LANG~MARK        45 54
-107  0   915 River Oaks Observatory, New   48 24
-112  0   ** Southern limit plus 3-Sigma **
__________________ 

David Dunham, 2007 Oct. 8, 18h UT
cell phone 301-526-5590, e-mail dunham@starpower.net
office e-mail david.dunham@jhuapl.edu 
I will be reachable by cell phone, but my e-mail is not working on 
my Blackberry, so I won't be able to get e-mail messages possibly 
starting Sat. morning (I'll try to find wifi to get messages in the 
afternoon, maybe they'll have it at or near the VAAS meeting)