Plans for the Occultation of 6.7-mag. SAO 115966 by (219) Thusnelda on 2007 December 18 - New 2007 Dec. 21, 0h UT

Bright trans-Atlantic occultation prediced for s. Europe, s. Florida, and Mexico

Hot links for most of the Web sites mentioned below are here.

From: David Dunham [dunham@starpower.net]
Sent: Sunday, December 16, 2007 4:16 AM
Subject: [PLANOCCULT] Need your help with occultation of 6.7-mag. SAO
115966 by (219) Thusnelda Mon. night; 1st stations list

Please help us measure the size and shape of (219) Thusnelda by 
observing its occultation of 6.7-mag. SAO 115966 (HIP 38140) a few 
degrees southeast of Procyon; the star is at J2000 RA 7h 48m 59.0s, 
Dec +4 deg. 20' 01".  Besides watching the star with steadily-held 
binoculars or a telescope, please try to time it with whatever 
timing methods you can, as described at 
http://iota.jhuapl.edu/timng920.htm and the links given there. 
Please spread word of this good event to others; best would be to 
distribute this to local astronomical society list servers so that 
most of their members can be reached.  Note that in Florida the 
occultation will occur just after midnight Monday night/Tues. am, 
Dec. 17/18, at 12:17 am EST. 

Although the occultation path is predicted to cross southern 
Florida, as well as Greece (Athens in the path), Italy (Messina and 
Palermo), Spain (Calar Alto Obs. & Sevilla), and Mexico (Zacatecas), 
observers throughout Florida are encouraged to monitor the bright 
star since a satellite of Thusnelda could occult the star up to 10 
path-widths (or almost 500 km) from the predicted central line, 
including throughout Florida. 

A link to Steve Preston's page for the occultation, with finder 
charts, etc., and other links and information is on my asteroidal 
occultation Web page at http://iota.jhuapl.edu/mp.htm .  The 
Accuweather forecast is very favorable for s. Florida, and the Astro 
Meteo forecast for 0h UT Dec. 18 UT (5h before the event) shows that 
it will be clear across virtually all of Florida, with light wind 
from the north that should give a little drier conditions than 
usual. 

Please let me know your plans to observe this event, if you haven't 
already done so; we especially need to know from where fixed-site 
observers will be trying this good event.  We want to know who might 
be observing this from Europe and Mexico, as well as Florida.  We 
want to optimize coverage of this event, so that the several mobile 
stations that we plan to deploy won't duplicate your observation, so 
your plans are important.  Later today, I'll distribute an update of 
the list given below based on further e-mail messages that I 
receive. 

My flight is scheduled to arrive at West Palm Beach at 2:25 pm 
Monday. Those who want to work with me could meet me at some place 
near the airport about an hour later.  Please provide your cell 
phone number, if you haven't already, to facilitate meeting.  Since 
the event doesn't occur until 12:17 am EST, there's no rush to meet, 
and those with day jobs can just leave to meet me after dinner, 
finding out where I am by cell phone at the time.  I will be busy 
the whole time, wanting to get away from the coast before rush hour 
traffic builds up too much, and start finding sites and setting up 
as many as 5 stations as soon as it gets dark.  I plan to deploy my 
stations mainly near US 27; it is quite unlikely that it will be 
necessary to go farther west for better conditions as I mentioned 
previously. 

In the list below, observers who are known to plan to try to observe 
this event, as well as several potential observers, are given from 
north to south in distance from Steve Preston's predicted central 
line.  The probability of an occultation for the location is given, 
followed by the observer and/or location.  For observers in our 
station database, the predicted time of the occultation is given for 
the location, as well as the altitudes of the target star and the 
Sun at the time of the occultation.  Codes are given between the 
distance and probability columns indicating how committed observers 
plan to time the event, with * for a fixed-site visual observer, V 
for a fixed-site video or CCD observer, m for a mobile visual 
observer, M for a mobile visual observer, V for a mobile video 
observer, and ? indicating a location from which observations would 
be valuable, but from which no response has been received, so for 
now we can't count on an observation from there (but since an 
observation might be made, mobile observers should try to avoid an 
exact duplicate observation). 

Occultation of SAO 115966 = HIP 38140 by 219 Thusnelda on
2007 Dec 18 (UT) - prediction updated by S. Preston Dec. 6 
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs 

 Distance (+ north of center, - south of center) from center,
 in    Prob.                                 U.T. Star Sun
 km      %    Observer and/or location       5h + Alt  Alt
                                             m  s   o    o
   72    2 ** Path limit plus 2-Sigma **
   70 ?  3 J75 OAM Observatory, La Sagra     6 42  38  -25
   63    5 J78 Murcia                        6 34  37  -24
   55 ? 10 J70 Obs. Astronomico Vega del T   6 34  37  -24
   47   16 ** Path limit plus 1-Sigma **
   47 ? 16 Cape Coral  FL - Bob Konior      17 59  51  -86
   44   19 J76 La Murta                      6 34  37  -24
   44   19 J72 Valle del Sol                 6 33  37  -24
   42   21 Izmir, Turkey                     4 27  16   -4
   40 V 23 LABELLE       FL MRAZ~FRANK J    17 55  51  -86
   35 ? 30 837 Jupiter FL                   17 45  52  -86
   31 M 47 D. Dunham
   28 ? 39 965 Observacao Astronomica no A   7 20  43  -30
   23   47 ***  Predicted Northern Path limit  ***
   22 M 47 D. Dunham remote
   18   52 FT MYERS FL DAVID B. WALLACE     18  0  51  -86
   17   54 944 Observatorio Geminis, Dos H   7  2  41  -28
   15   55 H72 Evelyn L. Egan Observatory,  17 59  51  -86
   13 M 57 Tom Campbell, FL
   10 ? 60 535 Palermo                       5 16  27  -14
    8 * 61 Palm Bch FL Bush & Fredrickson   17 44  53  -86
    4 M 62 Paul Maley, FL
    1 * 64 Tom Sarko, Lake Worth, FL
    0   64 **** Predicted Central Line    ****
   -0 * 64 Bill Bucklew, Lake Worth, FL
   -4 * 62 Jim Kimball, Lake Worth, FL
   -5 * 62 Jay Albert, Lake Worth, FL
   -6 M 61 Scott Degenhardt, FL
   -7 * 61 Dan Boyar, Boynton Beach, FL
  -10 M 59 Scott Degenhardt, FL remote #2
  -11   59 Caminiti,FurciSiculo       IT     5  6  26  -12
  -12 ? 58 066 Athens                        4 35  19   -6
  -13 ? 57 fe KryonerionObsy             GR  4 39  20   -7
  -14 M 57 Harold Povenmire - Dunham station
  -14 ? 57 493 Calar Alto Spain              6 40  39  -25
  -18 M 52 Scott Degenhardt, FL remote #1
  -22   47 J79 Observatorio Calarreona, Ag   6 33  38  -24
  -23   47 ***  Predicted Southern Path limit  ***
  -25 ? 44 Granada, Spain                    6 45  39  -26
  -25 ? 43 J86 Sierra Nevada Observatory     6 45  39  -26
  -27 M 40 Tom Fly - Dunham station
  -33 ? 32 452 Big Cypress Observatory      17 53  52  -87
  -36 M 29 Sruti Sathyanadan - Dunham station
  -46 V?17 SFAA Observatory - probable, position approximate
  -47   16 ** Path limit plus 1-Sigma **
  -48   15 559 Serra La Nave                 5  7  26  -12
  -57 ?  8 H77 Buehler Observatory          17 48  53  -87
  -61 ?  6 156 Catania Astrophysical Obser   5  6  26  -12
  -63    5 212 Observatorio La Dehesilla     6 52  40  -27
  -72 ?  2 983 San Fernando Spain            7  2  42  -28
  -72    2 ** Path limit plus 2-Sigma **
  -91    0 Miami FL                         17 49  53  -87
  -96    0 008 Algiers-Bouzareah             6  5  35  -21
  -96 ?  0 H76 Oakridge Observatory, Miami  17 53  53  -87
  -97    0 ** Path limit plus 3-Sigma **

David Dunham, cell phone 301-526-5590    2007 Dec. 16, 9h UT
Text messaging (to my Blackberry) to my office e-mail, 
david.dunham@jhuapl.edu - just reply to this message until I leave 
home Monday morning about 9 am. 
___________________________ 

From: David Dunham [dunham@starpower.net] 
Sent: Monday, December 17, 2007 11:40 AM 
Subject: My last station update for Dec. 17/18 (219) Thusnelda occ'n 
of 6.7-mag. SAO 115966 

This is a further minor update to the station list distributed last 
night.  The weather forecast for southern Florida is still good, as 
described two messages ago. 

This will probably be my last general message; my flight is about 
half an hour late (I'm still at Baltimore airport) and expect to 
arrive at West Palm Beach airport about 3 pm, leaving there about 4 
pm.  After this, I won't be able to distribute to the full list, but 
can get text messages and phone calls on my Blackberry. 

In the list below, observers who are known to plan to try to observe 
this event, as well as several potential observers, are given from 
north to south in distance from Steve Preston's predicted central 
line.  The probability of an occultation for the location is given, 
followed by the observer and/or location.  For observers in our 
station database, the predicted time of the occultation is given for 
the location, as well as the altitudes of the target star and the 
Sun at the time of the occultation.  Codes are given between the 
distance and probability columns indicating how committed observers 
plan to time the event, with * for a fixed-site visual observer, V 
for a fixed-site video or CCD observer, m for a mobile visual 
observer, M for a mobile visual observer, V for a mobile video 
observer. 

Occultation of SAO 115966 = HIP 38140 by 219 Thusnelda on
2007 Dec 18 (UT) - prediction updated by S. Preston Dec. 6 
Uncertainty in time = +/- 3 secs 

 Distance (+ north of center, - south of center) from center,
 in    Prob.                                 U.T. Star Sun
 km      %    Observer and/or location       5h + Alt  Alt
                                             m  s   o    o
   72    2 ** Path limit plus 2-Sigma **
   47   16 ** Path limit plus 1-Sigma **
   47 * 16 Cape Coral  FL - Bob Konior      17 59  51  -86
   40 V 23 LABELLE       FL MRAZ~FRANK J    17 55  51  -86
   31 M 47 D. Dunham
   23   47 ***  Predicted Northern Path limit  ***
   22 M 47 D. Dunham remote
   13 M 57 Tom Campbell, FL
   10 * 60 Paul Maley visual US27 FL
    8 * 61 Palm Bch FL Bush & Fredrickson   17 44  53  -86
    4 M 62 Paul Maley, FL remote #2 - might be attended
    1 * 64 Tom Sarko, Lake Worth, FL
    0   64 **** Predicted Central Line    ****
   -0 * 64 Bill Bucklew, Lake Worth, FL
   -4 * 62 Jim Kimball, Lake Worth, FL
   -5 * 62 Jay Albert, Lake Worth, FL
   -6 M 61 Scott Degenhardt, FL
   -7 * 61 Dan Boyar, Boynton Beach, FL
  -10 M 59 Scott Degenhardt, FL remote #2
  -12 M 58 Paul Maley, FL remote #1
  -14 M 57 Harold Povenmire - Dunham station
  -18 M 52 Scott Degenhardt, FL remote #1
  -23 V 47 Fred Lehman, FL (help from Maley)
  -23   47 ***  Predicted Southern Path limit  ***
  -29 M 40 Dunham remote station, Fly/Sathyanadan will help
  -36 M 29 Sruti Sathyanadan & Tom Fly - Dunham station
  -47 * 17 Don Ellington at SFAA Observatory
  -47   16 ** Path limit plus 1-Sigma **
  -72    2 ** Path limit plus 2-Sigma **

David Dunham, cell phone 301-526-5590   2007 Dec. 17, 16:30 UT
Text messaging (to my Blackberry) to my office e-mail, 
david.dunham@jhuapl.edu, I won't be reachable at 
dunham@starpower.net until Tues. night.  11:30 am EST 
___________________________ 

David Dunham, 2007 Dec. 20, 7 pm EST
Phones home 301-474-4722; office 240-228-5609; cell 301-526-5590 
office e-mail david.dunham@jhuapl.edu with Blackberry for mobile use
home e-mail:  dunham@starpower.net .