Occultation (Eclipse) of SAO 78252 by (146) Lucina on Sept. 20 - Updated 2007 Sept. 18, 22h UT

An occultation by a probable satellite of Lucina was observed in 1982

Observers in most of North America have a chance to confirm the satellite; observations are sought over a wide area

Please help us find the satellite, and if near the path, measure the size and shape of Lucina

This bright event is the best asteroidal occultation in North America during the rest of this year

Help us find (146) Lucina's satellite Thursday morning Sept. 20th!  
In April 1982, an occultation (eclipse of a star) by a probable 
satellite of (146) Lucina was video recorded with the 1-m telescope 
at Meudon Observatory near Paris, while the occultation by Lucina 
itself was observed in a different path crossing northern Spain.  
The observation implies an object at least 6 km across about 1600 km 
from Lucina, as reported in Icarus Vol. 61, pp. 224-231.  Observers 
across most of the western and central USA, northern Mexico, and 
Canada west of Quebec have a chance to make confirmatory 
observations of the satellite if they monitor the easily-found 7.9-
mag. star SAO 78252 only 2/3rds of a degree south of 3rd-mag mu 
Geminorum (Tejat). Especially those with video equipment in most of 
western North America are encouraged to record the star for a 
possible quick blink, expected to last about 0.3 second, that could 
be caused by the satellite (but if you don't have video equipment, 
such a "blink-out" should be easily noticed visually, so you are 
encouraged to look, with any small telescope or even good, steadily-
held binoculars).  In addition, observers in northern California, 
northern Nevada, southern Idaho, the northernmost part of Utah, 
northern Wyoming, s.e. Montana, n.w. South Dakota, s. & e. North 
Dakota, northern Minnesota, and western Ontario will have a 
spectacular occultation by Lucina that will last almost 7 seconds; 
visual, video, and CCD observers throughout those areas are 
especially encouraged to observe to help us determine the size and 
shape of Lucina.  Lucina, a C-class ("carbonaceous") asteroid, is 
expected to be about 132 km across.  

_____________________  NEW INFORMATION BELOW  __________________

AFTER ABOUT 0h UT Sept. 19 (Tues. evening 8 pm EDT) I will no longer 
be able to update this website.  Brad Timerson will post later 
updates on his Web page for this event.  

Weather update Tues. 1 pm:  Astro Meteo now has a forecast map, 47h 
prognosis, for 11h UT of Sept. 20, close to the time of the event. 
It shows clouds lingering over northeastern California, but clear in 
the northwest part.  So those who were planning to drive up I-5 to 
intercept the path might have clearer skies if they drive up US101 
instead.  If this forecast is confirmed with the update that will 
become available shortly after midnight EDT tonight, I'll procede 
with my plans to fly to Sacramento, arriving there tomorrow about 
2:30 pm. The update confirms that it will be overcast in most of N. 
Dakota and Minnesota; Steve Messner has little chance at his planned 
sites south of Fargo.  The largest clear area over the path will be 
in western S. Dakota, north of Rapid City, and over n.e. Wyoming, a 
clearing behind a quickly-moving front.  But just a few hours 
before, it will be cloudy there, so I am not very interested in 
trying it there myself since I wouldn't have time to pre-point my 
remote telescopes before the event.  Skies will be partly cloudy 
from s. Idaho to central Wyoming, so observers will have a 
reasonably good chance to see the event there, although it's not 
guaranteed. _________________________________ 

The rest of this message has the following sections:

1.  Information about the Sept. 20th occultation by Lucina.

2.  How to observe and confirm an occultation by Lucina's satellite.

3.  Station list for the Sept. 20th occultation by Lucina
_________________________________

1.   Please help us Wednesday night, actually early Thursday morning, 
Sept. 20, at 10:48-10:50 UT (3:48 am PDT, 4:49 am MDT, 5:50 am CDT, 
and 6:50 am EDT), to measure the size and shape of the approximately 
132-km asteroid (146) Lucina by observing and at least approximately 
timing its occultation of 7.9-mag. SAO 78252 (= TYC 1327-00069-1) 
2/3rds of a deg. south and a little west of the 3rd-mag. star mu 
Geminorum (Tejat); the target star is actually in Orion's club a 
little south of the border with Gemini.  The path was described 
above.  On or very close to the central line are Ukiah and Chico, 
CA; Winnemucca, NV; Pocatello, ID; between Buffalo and Sheridan, WY; 
Valley City & 25 mi. n. of Fargo, ND; Bemidji, MN; and Quetico 
Provincial Park, ON.  On or near the predicted northern limit Red 
Bluff; about 15 mi. n. of Idaho Falls; Powell, WY; just north of 
Bismarck and over Grand Forks, ND; over Thief River Falls and just 
north of International Falls, MN; and over Lake Nipigon, ON.  On or 
near the predicted southern limit are Santa Rosa, Yuba City, and 
Truckee, CA; Reno, Battle Mtn., and Elko, NV; Gillette, WY; 
Spearfish, SD; Hibbing, MN; the MN/ON border at the shore of Lake 
Superior; and Kapuskasing, ON.  Of course, as noted above and 
in item 2 below, an occultation by a satellite of Lucina, possibly 
the one that caused the 1982 event or another one, is possible from 
a much wider zone, from which observers are encouraged to monitor 
the star as well. 

If an occultation occurs, there will be an easily-seen, even 
spectacular, 6-mag. drop (to the 14th mag. of Lucina) predicted to 
last 6.8 seconds for a central event.  The first-quarter Moon will 
be below the horizon for all observers.  In Ontario, the event will 
occur in brightening dawn twilight with the sunrise point in western 
Quebec.

In any case, please let me know if you might try to observe this 
occultation from at or near home, or if you might be mobile, so we 
can effectively target mobile observers to avoid duplication of 
observations by fixed-site observers.  I'll update the long station 
list below to show plans with a future message after receiving 
responses from potential observers.  Even better, I recommend 
installing new software called Occult Watcher, where you input your 
position and it searches Steve Preston's predition Web site, 
informing you of all asteroidal occultations in your region during 
the next 4-5 weeks, giving probabilities and other details.  
Whenever a path is updated, the software lets you know.  It also has 
provision for you to specify your observing intentions, and these 
are displayed along with those of other observers to help plan the 
overall coverage for the event.  Hristo Pavlov in Sydney, Australia 
wrote this program; you can get it here.

FINDING THE TARGET STAR

     The star is in a rich part of the northern Milky Way at 
J2000 RA 6h 20m 32.1s, Dec +21 deg. 05' 27", 2/3rd deg. south-
southwest of 3rd-mag. mu Geminorum (Tejat) which, with the similar 
red-giant star eta Geminorum (Propus) make a distinctive pair a 
degree apart in the western corner of the Gemini "rectangle".  The 
target star is the westernmost of a small (0.2 deg. long) 
distinctive asterism (kind of a broken line) of 4 8th-mag. stars 
that should be very easy to recognize in finder scopes or even good 
binoculars.  Path maps and detailed finder charts of different 
scales are on Steve Preston's Web page for the event here.

     Additional useful information is on Derek Breit's Web site
 - scroll down to the line for this event on UT Sept. 20 at 10:51 UT, 
then click on "GoogleMap" for the interactive Google map of the path 
that you can zoom in on it to great detail.  If you double-click 
inside the map on the place where you want to observe, the 
coordinates and distance from center of the location will appear at 
the bottom of the map (with + for north and - for south). Click on 
"Sites" for a long list of stations sorted by distance from the 
central line, giving the predicted time of the occultation at the 
site, and the Sun & star altitudes at the time, and the probability 
for an occultation there (if your site is not in the list, either 
you are not within 3-sigma of having an occultation, or you may not 
be in the master list - to check the latter, contact Derek Breit at 
breit_ideas@hotmail.com).  The list uses accurate coordinates 
provided to us for the calculations, but the list only displays the 
coordinates to the nearest 5' for privacy concerns.  A shortened 
version of the list is below.  Let me know if your station is not on 
the list; if you can provide coordinates or a postal address, we can 
add your location.  

Clicking on "stars" gives a list of stars that can be used to pre-
point a stationary telescope to the direction of the occultation 
star before the event, useful mainly by those trying to run remote 
stations.  In this case, I think that it is easier to find the 
target star directly than to try the pre-pointing technique, but 
there is a good pre-pointing opportunity.  Mars is the brightest 
object in that part of the sky (but don't confuse it with the bright 
orange star Aldebaran, part of the Haydes "V" pattern about 15 deg. 
west of Mars); 3rd-mag. zeta Tauri will be the only relatively 
bright star close to Mars (2 deg. southwest of it).  If you center 
your telescope on zeta Tauri (J2000 RA 5h 37.6m, Dec 21 deg. 9') and 
turn off your clock drive, clamping the telescope so it won't move, 
the target star will appear 4' south of where zeta was 42m and 46s 
later. 
_________________________________ 

2.  As noted above, those well away from the path are encouraged to 
watch for a possible occultation by a possible satellite.  The 1982 
event was 1600 km from Lucina, about 12 Lucina diameters.  This 
means that all observers should monitor the star for at least 1.5
minutes before to 1.5 minutes after the time of closest approach for 
their location.  Since the shadow sweeps across the dark part of 
North America in less than 3 minutes, all observers can use 10:47 to 
10:52 as the observing window; watching another minute earlier 
(especially in the West) and/or later (especially in the East) won't 
hurt.  Lucina's motion relative to the Earth is fast, 19 km/sec., so 
an occultation by the possible object that caused the 1982 event at 
Meudon will be only 0.3 second.  That could be noticed visually (but 
try not to blink!), but a video recording is better to document the 
event.  Visual observers should try to arrange to observe in pairs.  
That is, try to get a friend to observe from another location 
nearby, but preferably at least 100 meters away to give a more 
indepenent observation.  The event should be timed, even if only 
approximately, but do the best you can; timing methods are described 
here.
_________________________________

3.  Below is a partial list of stations, similar to station lists that 
I've distributed for previous events.  At the end of the list, I 
include a shortened version of it including just those who have said 
that they plan to observe this occultation.  So far, most of the 
observers are mobile; we need to get a better idea of who might be 
trying to observe the occultation from fixed sites in and near the 
path.  Especially, observers in the Sacramento region, and north of 
San Francisco, are sought.  In any case, claim your "chord" 
(distance from the central line) now so that mobile observers can 
avoid your line.  In the list below, "north" or positive distances 
from center are more to the northwest, of center, while "south" or 
negative distances are more to the southeast, of center.  

Occultation of SAO 78252 by 146 Lucina on 2007 Sep 20
Prediction by Steve Preston on Aug. 13.1.  The 2nd column gives the 
probability that an occultation will occur at the location.  You 
need to use a fixed-space font such as Courier for the table to 
display properly.  All observers especially within the "2-sigma" 
limits are encouraged to observe, at least from convenient near-home 
locations, and of course much farther away for checking for 
satellites. NOTE THAT THIS IS ONLY A LIST OF POTENTIAL OBSERVERS AND 
POSSIBLE OBSERVING STATIONS; I'M SURE THAT NO OBSERVATION WILL BE 
MADE FROM MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS, SO ANY OBSERVATION THAT YOU CAN 
MAKE WILL BE VALUABLE.  See the updated shorter list at the bottom 
for observers who say they are planning to try the event.
                                                     
Occultation of SAO 78252 (TYC 1327-00069-1 
by (146) Lucina on 2007 Sep 20 

      P                                              
      r                                              
Dist. o                                      U.T.     
from  b                                       10h Star Sun
center.   Location, observer                  and Alt  Alt
  km  %                                      m  s   o    o
 212  0   ** Northern limit plus 3-Sigma **
 198  0   Boise ID                          48 55  43  -28
 195  0   Eureka CA                         48 26  37  -35
 173  2   Billings MT                       49 24  48  -22
 167  2   ** Northern limit plus 2-Sigma **               
 124 15   SurpriseVlyHotSpg, CA             48 38  40  -32
 122 16   ** Northern limit plus 1-Sigma **               
 110 23   Redding  CA Schreder Pln. Adams   48 29  39  -34
  96 33   REGAN         ND LEPPERT~JOHN     49 52  52  -17
  81 46   GRAND FORKS   ND GAFFEY~MICHAEL   50  5  53  -14
  81 46   730 University of North Dakota    50  5  53  -14
  77 50   ***  Northern limit  ***                        
  76 50   E E Barnard Obs  Allan Morton     49  8  46  -25
  61 63   Bismarck ND                       49 50  52  -17
  31 83   MENDOCINO     CA POPLINGER~CHARL  48 22  38  -35
  28 85   Sheridan WY                       49 25  49  -22
   1 91   Pocatello ID                      49  3  46  -26
   0 91   **** Centre Line    ****                        
 -35 81   Fargo ND                          50  3  54  -14
 -39 79   Gualala  CA 2001_9 7RobertInnes   48 20  38  -36
 -54 69   Thunder Bay ON Randy McAllister   50 31  57   -9
 -68 57   Armstrng CA Nolthenius mobile     48 21  38  -36
 -71 55   NevadaCy CA Wayne Watson          48 28  40  -34
 -77 50   ***  Southern limit  ***                        
 -78 49   Dunnigan,  CA                     48 24  39  -35
 -80 47   G64 Blue Canyon Observatory       48 29  40  -34
 -80 47   SAN RAFA CA HUME OBSERVATORY      48 21  38  -35
 -82 45   Grass Valley CA Dunckel~Peter B   48 27  40  -34
 -86 41   Occidental CA Phil Sullivan       48 20  38  -36
 -87 41   Reno     NV Arthur Johnson        48 32  41  -33
 -92 37   SANTA ROSA    CA LOYER~GEORGE E.  48 21  38  -35
 -92 36   Colfax   CA Don Machholz          48 27  40  -34
 -96 33   Sebastopol, CA   Robert Innes     48 20  38  -36
-100 30   Kenwood, CA      FergusonObs.,8   48 21  39  -35
-104 27   PENNGROVE     CA BUMGARNER~SANDY  48 21  39  -35
-111 23   Winters   CA                      48 23  39  -35
-112 22   Rocklin CA SierraCol.DaveKenyon   48 26  40  -34
-118 18   DAVIS         CA ERICKSON~PROF.   48 24  39  -35
-121 16   Pt Reyes - Vision                 48 19  38  -36
-122 16   Dayton, NV      Red Sumner 20cm   48 31  41  -33
-122 16   ** Southern limit plus 1-Sigma **               
-122 16   Carson City, NV -J Davis OBS 16"  48 30  41  -33
-124 15   G66 Lake Forest Observatory       48 26  40  -34
-125 14   Dayton   CA Red Sumner            48 31  41  -33
-125 14   Carson City NV                    48 30  41  -33
-126 14   Sacrmnto CA Manuel Tsihlas        48 24  39  -35
-126 14   Sacramento    CA Lerner~Noel      48 25  39  -34
-131 11   CameronP CA Charlie Coburn        48 26  40  -34
-139  9   Sacramen CA Jim Varney, S.V.A.S   48 24  39  -35
-141  8   726 Brainerd                      50 10  56  -13
-150  5   Duluth, MN Bob King               50 19  57  -11
-151  5   WILTON        CA PULLEN~CHUCK     48 24  40  -35
-154  4   Duluth   MN Douglas Dunham        50 19  57  -11
-155  4   RapidCity SD                      49 34  52  -20
-156  4   MARTINEZ      CA Breit~Derek      48 21  39  -35
-157  4   Fiddletown  CA                    48 26  40  -34
-158  4   Duluth MN                         50 19  57  -11
-163  3   455 CBA Concord                   48 21  39  -35
-164  3   Superior WI                       50 19  57  -11
-165  2   BERKELEY      CA FREEMAN~TONY     48 20  39  -35
-166  2   Berkeley      CA Schrier~Joshua   48 20  39  -35
-166  2   660 Leuschner Observatory, Berk   48 20  39  -35
-167  2   ** Southern limit plus 2-Sigma **               
-169  2   WlnutCrk CA Tom Case (&Rowley)    48 21  39  -35
-170  2   SanFrancisco CA                   48 19  39  -36
-173  2   SAN FRAN CA William Westbrooke    48 19  39  -36
-173  2   Walnut Creek  CA Shelton~Robert   48 21  39  -35
-174  2   Fremont  CA D. Anderson           48 20  39  -36
-174  2   ANTIOCH       CA WESTFALL~JOHN E  48 21  39  -35
-175  1   Oakland  CA Chabot Obs. (new)     48 20  39  -35
-178  1   SAN LEANDRO   CA GINGRICH~MARK    48 20  39  -35
-183  1   Ogden UT                          48 58  46  -27
-183  1   Brisbane  CA                      48 19  39  -36
-187  1   Fred Schumacher                   48 27  41  -34
-188  1   Ogden    UT J. R. McCormick       48 58  46  -27
-189  1   Castro Valley CA Skelly~Bruce J.  48 20  39  -35
-191  1   CastroVl CA Bob Sills             48 20  39  -35
-192  1   Stockton CA Jeff Baldwin          48 23  40  -35
-194  0   Uinta    UT Keith Finlayson       48 58  46  -27
-196  0   918 Badlands Observatory, Quinn   49 37  52  -19
-199  0   PLEASANTON    CA MORGAN~WALTER V  48 20  39  -35
-201  0   BELMONT       CA HART~JIM         48 19  39  -36
-202  0   LIVERMORE     CA MORANA~ED        48 21  39  -35
-202  0   HALF MOON BAY CA FRANK~CHRISTOPH  48 18  39  -36
-202  0   Livermore  Carlos Avalle          48 21  39  -35
-204  0   G61 Pleasanton                    48 20  39  -35
-204  0   UNION CITY    CA GARFINKLE~ROBER  48 19  39  -36
-205  0   Livermor CA Jim Ferreira          48 20  39  -35
-206  0   Pierre SD                         49 44  53  -18
-212  0   Manteca CA  Fred Schumacher       48 22  40  -35
-212  0   ** Southern limit plus 3-Sigma **
_______________________________________

Short updated list of committed observers

Below, codes between the "Probability (Prob.)" column and the 
location, observer is * for visual observers, V for video, m for 
mobile visual, and M for mobile video.  w is for a visual observer 
likely to be clouded out while W is similar for a video observers.  
I have taken most of the observer information below from the Occult 
Watcher list.  As noted above, I'll probably shift my sites to US 
101, and others now planning on I-5 may also do that. 

Occultation of SAO 78252 (TYC 1327-00069-1) by (146) Lucina on 2007 Sep 20

      P
      r
Dist. o                                      U.T.
from  b                                       10h Star Sun
center.   Location, observer                  and Alt  Alt
  km  %                                      m  s   o    o
 537  0 V Umatilla, OR Tony George sat. search
 212  0   ** Northern limit plus 3-Sigma **
 167  2   ** Northern limit plus 2-Sigma **
 122 16   ** Northern limit plus 1-Sigma **
  88 39 M Cottonwood, CA D. Dunham mobile
  77 50   ***  Northern limit  ***
  68 57 M n. Red Bluff, CA D. Dunham N.remote
  46 74 M Hwy A11, w. Tehama, CA D. Dunham cen.remote
  25 85 M Walter Morgan remote
  24 86 M Walter Morgan mobile
  15 89 M IOTA West mobile observer
   9 90 M Navarro, CA Charles Poplinger
   0 91   **** Centre Line    ****
  -2 90 M Paul Maley mobile
 -15 89 M IOTA West mobile observer (R. Nugent?)
 -26 85 M Derek Breit remote
 -28 84 M Derek Breit mobile
 -47 73 M s. Williams, CA D. Dunham S.remote48 26  39  -35
 -56 67 W s. Fargo, ND Steve Messner mobile
 -68 58 W s. Fargo, ND Steve Messner remote
 -68 58 M Armstrong, CA R. Nolthenius
 -77 50   ***  Southern limit  ***
 -82 45 V e. Windsor, CA HUME OBSERVATORY   48 21  38  -35
-122 16   ** Southern limit plus 1-Sigma **
__________________ 

David Dunham, 2007 Sept. 18, 22h UT
cell phone 301-526-5590, e-mail dunham@starpower.net
office e-mail david.dunham@jhuapl.edu (Blackberry)