Aug. 13th occultation of 1 Trianguli by (89) Julia

The best asteroidal occultation in North America this year

Updated: 2005 Aug. 11

     Just after 9h UT of Saturday morning, August 13 (3 am MDT), the 
best asteroidal occultation of the year for North America will occur 
from southern Baja California across the Rocky Mountains to 
Sasketchewan.  We need your help to observe this outstanding event, 
the occultation of 7.6-mag. 1 Trianguli = SAO 74880 = HIP 7948 by 
the large 151-km asteroid (89) Julia.  If an occultation occurs, 
there will be a 3-mag. drop lasting up to 11 seconds.  Please let me 
know your plans for observing this occultation that could even be 
observed with a good pair of steadily-mounted binoculars (but a 
small telescope is recommended). 

     Several observers in New Mexico plan to try the occultation, 
as well as a few in Colorado, but so far I have heard from nobody in 
Wyoming, where the chances for clear skies may be greater.  Please 
help us observe this easy event and let me know your plans so that 
mobile observers don't duplicate your observation.  I am especially 
interested in working with observers from Colorado and Wyoming, 
where I plan to observe the occultation from multiple sites, and 
could use local help with my equipment.  I also have extra video 
cameras that can be used with any controllable telescope (that is, 
can be pointed at the target star, or pre-pointed to where it will 
be) to record the occultation, but I have only one extra VCR that I 
can bring, besides the 4 that will be used with my 4 small 
telescopes, to record the event.  I also want to know what observers 
in southern Baja California plan to do for this event since it's 
likely to be clear there, also. 

     Albuquerque, NM and Denver, CO straddle the eastern edge of 
this south-to-north path, but few observers live near the center or 
in the western half of the path; those few there are strongly 
encouraged to try to observe it, but mostly at least that part of 
the path must be covered by mobile observers.  The path is shown on 
Steve Preston's Web site (see below), but much more detailed path 
maps are now available, especially for planning mobile observations, 
at other Web sites specified below.  The path sweeps across the 
southern part of Baja California (La Paz just west of center) and 
east of Hermosillo at 9:00 UT (3:00 am MDT); then passes over 
western New Mexico at 9:01 UT; western Colorado and eastern Wyoming 
at 9:02 UT; and eastern Montana and south-central Saskatchewan at 
9:03 UT.

     1 Trianguli, spectral type A2, is at J2000 RA 1h 42m 05.9s,
Dec. +29 deg. 30' 22" in Triangulum, about halfway between 3rd-mag.
alpha Trianguli and M33, 2.4 deg. west of alpha and 0.6 deg. south 
of a 5th-mag. star.  A finder chart is at the bottom of p. 71 of the 
August issue of Sky and Telescope, but more detailed ones of 
different scales are on Steve Preston's Web site.
The star will be at rather high altitude, mostly above 45 deg., for 
all observers, with no twilight or moonlight. 

     The first Clear Sky Clock forecast, a 45h prognosis, shows 
clouds over most of the path in the USA, unfortunately.  The best 
area, according to it, is along the Canadian border, northernmost 
Montana and much of southern Saskatchewan.  Farther south, the best 
area seems to be in southwesternmost New Mexico, along I-10 
(Lordsburg and Deming area).  Another mostly clear area is a narrow 
band in southern Wyoming.  But both of these areas have poor 
transparency, probably indicating thin cirrus; at least, this star, 
bright and at high altitude, can shine through thin clouds, but such 
clouds would make finding the target star more difficult; possibly 
you could use setting circles to offset from alpha Trianguli.
The weather prospects are probably very good also in southern 
Baja California.  Sam Herchak has provided a source where Clear Sky 
Clock's forecasts can be obtained a little earlier, directly from 
Environment Canada.  The forecasts are the 
same as Clear Sky Clock's, but without individual sites; they are 
just the maps that Clear Sky Clock uses.  They update the maps twice 
daily, by 5h UT and by 17h UT.

     A list of stations for this occultation, sorted by distance 
from the central line, giving the time of closest approach, 
distance in km from the predicted central line, probability for an 
occultation, etc., is on Derek Breit's Web site.
Steve Preston has prepared detailed maps of the path showing 
parallel lines at 5-km intervals called "tracks"; you can get them 
from the section about Julia (scroll down a couple of pages) on 
Paul Maley's web site.  The tracks are numbered from the 
center out to N25 on the west side of the path, and to S25 on the 
east side of it.  Multiply the track number by 5 to get the distance 
in km from the central line, or divide the distance in km by 5 to 
get your track number.  We'll be using track numbers for planning 
the coverage by mobile observers.  The predicted eastern edge of the 
path is 87.5 km east of center, or at track 17.5S, while the western 
edge is at 17.5N; there is a 50% chance for an occultation there 
(and much higher as one moves towards the center, where the chances 
are closer to 100% than 99%).  A one-sigma shift to the east would 
move the eastern edge to 114 km east of center or track 22.7S; there 
is a 16% chance for an occultation there, and similarly for track 
22.7N to the west.  Even more detail than on these maps can be found 
at Charlie Ridgway's interactive Google maps site; he not only shows 
the usual limits for this event (green line for the center, blue 
lines for the predicted limits, and orange ones for the 1-sigma 
limits), but also has added Steve Preston's tracks as pink lines.
The pink lines aren't labelled, but he gives thicker pink lines at
5-track (25 km) intervals so it's pretty easy to keep track of them.
And Kiwi Geoff has used this event to show a new capability, to plot
a specified offset line (actually, two of them, one on each side of 
center) at a specified distance in km from the center that can be 
used with the same Google Earth database to zoom into any desired 
scale; you can access it here.

     Some observers have already made plans to occupy certain lines, 
pending knowledge of fixed-site attempts; they don't want to travel 
to a remote site only to duplicate someone's chord at a fixed 
observatory.  So let us know your plans.  James Thompson and I plan 
to observe this event, scheduled to arrive in Colorado Springs, CO 
at 10:15 am MDT Aug. 12.  We will drive north to Greeley, where we 
hope to meet Dick Dietz to help us with the 4 stations that we want 
to deploy across the path, and to obtain a last check of the Clear 
Sky Clock forecast. We will probably deploy the stations across the 
path along either I-80 west of Cheyenne, WY, or if necessary farther 
north along I-25 and US 20 east and west of Casper, WY.  In the less 
likely case that the forecast is good for western Colorado, we'll 
drive the shorter distance to observe from sites near I-70 west of 
Denver.  But we will also check the forecast from Colorado Springs, 
and may drive south to southern New Mexico if the forecast remains 
better for that area.  Since we'll be pre-pointing telescopes, we'll 
want to start deploying as soon as it gets dark, so it needs to be 
clear, or mostly so, in the target area in the evening as well as 
during the early morning.  Others are invited to help us straddle 
the path with as many stations as possible to better determine the 
size and shape of (89) Julia. 

    Below is an updated list of observers who plan to try to observe 
the occultation; there are a few changes from the list that I 
distributed before.  This is given in 5-km-wide "tracks" explained 
above.

Track

N17.4 predicted western limit (but it could be farther west)
N15   James Thompson, mobile with Dunham unit
N12 approximately, for Sam Herchak mobile (coming from Phoenix area)
N10   Kevin McKeown, NM mobile from Albuquerque
N8.2  Sleaford Observatory, Saskatchewan
N6.8  Datil, NM mobile from Soccoro
N5.2  Dunham remote #1
N3.6  NM, mobile from Socorro
N2    Pie Town, NM portable from Socorro
C0    Paul Maley & El Paso 1 only if weather good enough to try it
S2    Paul Maley & El Paso 2 only if weather good enough to try it
S4    Paul Maley & El Paso 3 only if weather good enough to try it
S6    Dunham remote #2
S7.5  NM, Bill Stein mobile
S9.2  Magdalena, NM Bill Ryan, fixed site
S10.2 Dunham mobile
S11.2 Miners View, CO C14 observatory Tina Ruhland
S12.0 Regina, SK Vance Petriew fixed observatory
S13.5 NM Rich Richins mobile
S14.6 Twining Observatory, near Albuquerque?
S15.8 Etscorn Observatory, Socorro, NM, Dan Klinglesmith 
S17.4 predicted eastern limit (but it could be farther east)
S18   around this chord, a few observers in Albuquerque, NM
S36   Kiowa Observatory, Scott Donnell

Some tracks for a few key places:

N2.4  La Paz, Baja
N1.8  Casper, WY
S14   Laramie, WY
S15.8 San Jose del Cabo, Baja (duplicates Etscorn Obs., better to
        go farther northeast)
S23.7 Boulder, CO

If not above, you can determine your track by looking at the station 
list on Derek Breit's Web site and divide the distance in km in the
left column by 5 to get the track.  Or you can determine it from one 
of the many on-line maps.

This is my last update of this Web site.  For any future chances, 
see Derek Breit's Web site above.  I'll be reachable by e-mail, best 
at dunham@starpower.net, until 4 am EDT Aug. 12, and possibly after 
that if I can find a wifi connection or get internet access.  But 
the best way to reach me after that time will be by car phone, see 
below.

David Dunham, IOTA, 2005 August 11, 23h UT
e-mail home dunham@starpower.net office david.dunham@jhuapl.edu
Phone home 301-474-4722; office 240-228-5609; car 301-526-5590