Large Asteroid (52) Europa Occ'n Sat. Dec. 3 am, s.w. USA

Thousands of telescopes are in this path, including populous parts of California, Arizona, and New Mexico

The very wide path and 8.9-mag. target star make this one of the best asteroidal occultations of 2005 in the USA

Observers in w. Texas might find star an hour before & follow it to the event in bright twilight

First results will be reported at the Small Bodies Educator's Conference that will be held at Jet Propulsion Laboratory over the weekend.

Updated: 2005 Dec. 1

For those who want some general information about asteroidqal 
occultations, see this Power-Point presentation (5 megabytes).
For information about timing occultations, click here 
with some more good information by Guy Nason here.

If you have a 2-inch or larger telescope, we need your help to 
observe the occultation of 8.9-mag. SAO 139619 = TYC 4974-00584-1 by 
the 302-km asteroid (52) Europa, one of the ten largest asteroids 
(NOT the Galilean satellite of Jupiter with the same name), visible 
Saturday morning Dec. 3rd in a path passing over much of the 
southwestern USA.  Please get up a little earlier than usual this 
weekend morning to observe this possibly best asteroidal occultation 
of 2005 in the USA.  We are making plans to cover the path as well 
as we can, with several observers being mobile; please let us know 
your plans to try to observe this occultation so that one of the 
mobile observers doesn't waste effort duplicating your chord across 
the asteroid.  For most observers, the occultation will occur at 
13:07 UT (5:07 am PST = 6:07 am MST).  The predicted northern limit 
passes over San Pablo Bay north of San Francisco, CA; just north of 
Las Vegas, NV and Flagstaff, AZ; and south of Albuquerque, NM, while 
the predicted southern limit passes over Santa Barbara, the San 
Fernando and San Gabriel Valleys, and Riverside, Calif.; just north 
of Tucson, AZ; and south of El Paso and near Ft. Davis, Texas.  But 
the limit locations are uncertain by as much as 50 miles (the star is 
not in the more accurate Hipparcos catalog) so observers throughout 
the Los Angeles area, or in places to the north like Sacramento and 
Albuquerque, have a chance for an occultation, and are strongly 
encouraged to try to observe the target star; their observations will 
be most valuable for measuring the edges of the shadow.  Near 
the path center are Monterey, Tulare, Ridgecrest, and Needles, 
Calif.; Prescott, AZ; and Truth or Consequences and Carlsbad, NM. At 
El Paso, the Sun altitude will be -9 deg., so twilight will be 
strong enough to cause some problems there, especially seeing 
fainter stars in finder scopes - observers in eastern Arizona and 
locations farther east should locate the star half an hour or more 
before the event while the sky is dark enough to "navigate", then 
follow the star to the event.  That way, even observers in Midland 
and Lubbock, Texas (where the event will occur at 13:08 UT = 7:08 am 
CST) might have a chance to observe this occultation, but east of 
there, I think it will be hopeless, as the target star in Virgo is 
in the approximate direction of sunrise. For more information about 
this event, see Steve Preston's Web site. 
It has detailed finder charts of different scales to easily locate 
the star.  Some fairly detailed maps showing major highways are on 
that Web site, with even more detailed maps available at Derek 
Breit's and Charlie Ridgway's Web sites described below. 

If you can help us observe this occultation, either from your home 
or observatory, or as a mobile observer, please inform me and Derek 
Breit (e-mail breit_ideas@hotmail.com ).  For coordinating coverage 
of this occultation, a list of stations sorted by distance in km 
from the predicted central line, is on D. Breit's Web site
You can search for your, or your town's or observatory's, name to 
see just when the occultation is predicted for your area (that time 
should be accurate to within 15 seconds or so), the probability for 
having an occultation there, and the predicted Sun and star 
altitudes at the time.  If your station is not in the list, send me 
and/or Derek Breit your coordinates, or your street address, and we 
can add it. Derek will update his Web site with information 
indicating which distances from the central line (or "chords") will 
have observers trying to time the occultation.  Some observers have 
already specified their intentions; those at fixed sites are 
indicated in red in Derek's list, and mobile observers are in green. 

Let me know your plans, whether you plan to observe from a fixed 
site or are mobile, needing a line to aim for.  During the next 
nights, I'll distribute an edited down list of stations from Derek 
Breit's more extensive list including only those who have said that 
they will try to observe this good event.  I hope to try to observe 
the occultation from multiple sites across the path, probably mostly 
near I-15 north of Barstow, Calif., but may select a different area, 
depending on the weather (I'll be flying into Ontario airport, 
arriving there about 7 pm Friday, but am connecting through Phoenix 
so I could change to go there instead if the weather forecast is 
better in Arizona).  If any others want to help me with this, let me 
know. 

You can see the path superimposed on very detailed 
maps and satellite imagery on Charlie Ridgway's Web site.  
For general information about his site, click here, 
while for the map specifically for the Europa occultation,
click here.  
On this site, you can enter a distance from the central line in km 
in a special "offset" box (just write over the default value of 1000 
given there) and it will plot gray lines at that distance north and 
south of the central line. 

Type your distance number (in km) in the box just to the left of the
"Plot Offsets" box at the bottom of the map.  You need to type a
number with no sign, then two gray lines are plotted; zoom in on the
gray line northeast of the yellow central line if your distance is +
and on the gray line southwest of the central line if your distance
is -.  You can move the map by grabbing it (left-clicking and
holding down) and you can zoom in or out by left-clicking on the
scale in the upper left part of the map (+ on that scale means "zoom
in" for more detail over a smaller area).  You can toggle between
"map" (showing town and road names), "satellite" for satellite 
imagery, and "hybrid" for both together.  

The target star is in Virgo 11 deg. northwest of Jupiter and 9 deg. 
northeast of Spica at J2000 RA 13h 54m 58.3s, Dec -05 deg. 43' 55".
The target star is only 9' north of 7.8-mag. SAO 139617 that should 
be visible in all finder telescopes; also, 11' east and a little 
south of the target star is 8.6-mag. SAO 139610.  The spectral class 
of the target star is B5.  If an occultation occurrs, it would last 
up to 8 seconds with a 3-magnitude drop. 

The first Astro Meteo forecast (on which Clear Sky 
Clock is based), to 1 hour before the event, is now available.  It 
generally confirms the earlier Accuweather forecast, showing mostly 
clear skies across the path in California except south of a line 
extending approximately from Long Beach to Needles, and also clear 
over western Texas and s.w. New Mexico.  It will be mostly cloudy 
across Arizona (but the clouds should be thin in the southeast) and 
in central New Mexico near the Rio Grande.  In California, clouds are 
also predicted to bunch up and linger in the southeastern and 
southermost San Joaquin Valley, around Bakersfield and the adjacent 
mountains.  You can see the cloud forecast map here and the 
transparency forecast map here.

Observers who have said they will try to observe are indictated 
below.  After the distance in km, w means that chances are good that 
they will be clouded out; m means mobile observer, f means fixed-
site observer.  If you are not already on the list, please let us 
(me at the return e-mail address of this message, and if possible, 
also Derek Breit at breit_ideas@hotmail.com) know so we can add you; 
a last update will be distributed early Friday morning by about 6 am 
PST.  Mobile observers should also let us know so we can recommend a 
distance for you to aim for, and use Charlie Ridgway's Web site 
given in my last message to find a location; if possible, specify a 
range of distances within which you would prefer to locate.    
The list below is based on the much larger list, including 
hundreds of observers who have not yet indicated if they will try to 
observe (probably including your station), on D. Breit's Web site.
Thursday evening, I will determine a plan for my own remote and 
attended stations based on the coverage and weather forecast at that 
time.  I am planning to set up the stations in the central part of 
the path, mostly on the northern side if the weather forecast is good 
along I-15 east of Barstow (not the case now), but mostly on the 
southern side if I need to go farther west (probably to Hwy 14/US 
395, my current plan). 

Occultation of TYC 4974-00584-1 by 52 Europa on 2005 Dec 03 
After about 0h UT Dec. 2, this list will not be up-to-date; Derek 
Breit's Web site with link above will then have more recent updates 
so you should consult it.  I'll update the list and distribute it by 
e-mail this evening, but probably will not have a chance to update 
this Web site after this posting, until Tuesday next week. 
 
Distance from center of occultation path - in km
                                                                     Star
     Proba-  Location                      Longitude Latitude   U.T.  Alt Sun  
  km bility                                   o   '    o   '    h  m    o   o  
 287    2% ** Northern limit plus 2-sigma **                                   
 231 f 14% Tijeras, NM      Becky Ramotows -106 15.6 +34 58.7  13 7.9  31 -10  
 226   16% ** Northern limit plus 1-sigma **                                   
 200 w 28% Los Lunas, NM    Steve Welch    -106 45.4 +34 48.3  13 7.9  31 -10  
 166 f 49% Antioch  CA JOHN E. WESTFALL    -121 48.7  37 57.6  13 7.6  18 -23  
 165   50% ***  Northern limit  ***                                            
 163 m 50%    DEREK'S MOBILE SITE                                              
 154 m 57% WalntCrk CA ROBERT G. SHELTON   -122  1.9  37 53.3  13 7.6  18 -23  
 137 f 68% Pleasntn CA WALTER V. MORGAN    -121 52.5  37 41.7  13 7.6  18 -23  
 117 w 78% Socorro  NM Mark Vincent Mobile -106 53.5  34  3.5  13 7.9  31 -10  
 114 w 80% Magdalena  NM  Bill Ryan        -107 14.3  34  7.0  13 7.9  31 -10  
  55 m 96% RICHARD NOLTHENIUS Europa       -120 49.0  36 42.6  13 7.6  20 -22  
  48 w 97% Springvl CA John Sanford        -118 48.3  36 13.5  13 7.6  21 -20  
  26 w 99% Haigler  AZ Sam Herchak         -110 57.9  34 12.7  13 7.8  28 -13  
   0   99% **** Centre Line    ****                                            
 -50 f 97% Silver City NM NFO
 -51 m 97% Derald Nye  Mobile  Europa      -117 32.9  35  1.7  13 7.6  23 -19  
 -55 f 96% LasCrucs NM Bill Stein          -106 46.1  32 23.4  13 7.9  32  -9  
 -62 f 95% LasCrucs NM Rich Richins        -106 44.2  32 18.8  13 7.9  32  -9  
 -63 f 95% LasCrucs NM Robert A. James     -106 47.7  32 19.4  13 7.9  32  -9  
 -79 w 92% Scottsdl AZ Randy Peterson      -111 54.7  33 27.8  13 7.7  28 -14  
 -95 f 87% Ed Morana Mobile Europa         -120 41.0  35 17.5  13 7.6  20 -21  
-101 w 85% Chandler AZ    Michael Collins  -111 49.3  33 14.1  13 7.7  28 -14  
-123 f 75% Writewod CA Table Mountain Obs. -117 40.9  34 22.9  13 7.6  23 -19  
-125 f 74% Wrightwood, CA   Karen A. Young -117 38.4  34 21.7  13 7.6  23 -19  
-128 f 73% RunningS CA Robert Jones        -117  7.9  34 13.1  13 7.6  23 -18  
-144 w 63% Maricopa AZ StonehavenOb,S.Dodd -112  8.7  32 55.1  13 7.7  28 -14  
-154 f 57% LaCanada CA STEVE EDBERG        -118 10.4  34 12.4  13 7.6  23 -19  
-154 f 57% ALTADENA CA G.Lyzenga &L. Benne -118  7.7  34 11.9  13 7.6  23 -19  
-165   50% ***  Southern limit  ***                                            
-166 w 49% OroVally AZ JIM STAMM           -110 57.9  32 25.2  13 7.8  29 -13  
-175 w 43% Tucson   AZ SabinoCan.Obs.McGah -110 49.1  32 18.0  13 7.8  29 -13  
-226   16% ** Southern limit plus 1-sigma **                                   
-254 w  7% Ramona, CA       Fred Bruenjes  -116 49.3  32 59.6  13 7.6  24 -18  
-287    2% ** Southern limit plus 2-sigma **                                   

Coverage just south of the southern limit, where an occultation could 
occur, is very poor, the two observers there both likely to be 
clouded out.  It would help if observers on the west side of the Los 
Angeles area, where clear skies are predicted, especially south like 
Torrance and Palos Verdes, and west to Carpenteria and Ventura, could 
observe to help fill this void.  Note that some observers are 
"bunched up", such as around Las Cruces, NM; Derald Nye should go a 
little farther north (since his current plan duplicates, within a km, 
a fixed site in southern NM) and one of the Las Cruces observers 
might go mobile (south might be towards higher chance of clear 
skies?).  Steve Edberg in La Canada will have to be mofile since 
trees block his view at his house, but he will not be able to travel 
far, just a few km - if possible, he should go north.  It would be 
better if Richard Nolthenius observed from a location 20 km or more 
farther north to better fill a large gap on the northern side of the 
path.

All day Saturday, Dec. 3, and during the morning, Dec. 4, a Small 
Bodies Educator's Conference, focusing mostly on space missions to 
asteroids and comets, will be held at the von Karman auditorium at 
the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Californa.  I'm scheduled 
to speak about asteroidal occultations at 9:30 am Sunday.  The 
agenda is here.  For more information, 
contact David Seidel at JPL at David.M.Seidel@jpl.nasa.gov .

David Dunham, 2005 Dec. 1, 22h UT
e-mail home dunham@starpower.net; office david.dunham@jhuapl.edu