West Coast Binoculars occultation, July 17/18
Updated: 2003 July 17Steve Preston has updated the path for the occultation of 6.4-mag. SAO 100819 by (1263) Varsavia around 6:04 UT July 18 (11:04 pm PDT of Thursday July 17 PDT) based on the HIP data for the star and FASTT observations of the asteroid up to late-May to give a reasonably good prediction, rank 70, for such a small object (49 km). Path maps and details are at Steve Preston's Web site (under the "past events" link at the top). Preston's last path was almost 2 path-widths west of Goffin's nominal path shown on p. 101 of the March issue of S&T, with the new times 0.4 min. later. The path passes over Victoria, BC at 6:03 UT, then over the Olympic Peninsula; over western Oregon, including Portland; then just east of Eugene, & Klamath Falls, Oregon; over Shasta, the eastern quarter of the Sacramento Valley and Sierra foothills, eastern half of the San Joaquin Valley, and over the western half of the Los Angeles basin. I made plans to travel to California for this good binoculars event. It was a good opportunity, with clear skies virtually guaranteed in July in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys (but remnants of Hurricane Claudette moved in, filling the southern San Joaquin valley and most of the L.A. area with clouds). The annual IOTA meeting was held in conjunction with this event. ___________________________________________________________________ Updated Stations and weather for tonight's Varsavia occultation (about 12 hours from now) If you haven't already done so and are in B.C., Washington, Oregon, or California, please copy especially my first message this week to as many other observers in your area and in your astronomical society - more new observers are welcome even now! The Clear Sky Clock forecast seems to be the same (probably not updated yet, as of now) as last night's forecast, showing considerable cloudiness in southern California, across the Desert, and into the Sierras and parts of the Central Valley, apparently the remnants of Hurricane Claudette. It indicates that in general, it will be better farther north in the Central Valley, with Fresno and the area west of it rather good, better than towards Bakersfield. This differs from Accuweather that is now predicting only scattered cirrus over most of southern California (Across the L.A. area, San Gabriel Mtns., Mojave Desert, Valencia, and Bakersfield) but heavier clouds around Visalia and areas southeast of Fresno (but well north of Bakersfield). It still looks pretty good from Sacramento northward to Seattle and southern B.C. Below is the updated list of observer stations sorted by distance from Steve Preston's updated central line (calculated July 6) - just a few additions from last night. Distances are given in km measured perpendicularly from the central line. The list here contains only confirmed stations from the first list, and new confirmed stations and the ends of roads that I may use for my stations (no codes given for them, the selected road depending on what the sky looks like when I get into the area late this afternoon). Like the message sent early today, the time gives the updated time (U.T. of July 18; 6h UT = 11 pm PDT of July 17) of closest approach, when the occultation should occur, within an accuracy of about +/-0.2 minute, at the location. You should monitor the star for an occultation within a 3-minute period centered on the time of closest approach for your location (to check for occultations by possible satellites of Varsavia). You can search for your city or name with a word processor to find your time and distance from the predicted central line. ______________________________________________ Below are recommended tracks for mobile observers (if you can, but go where the weather looks best; I've added some from last night's list, which otherwise I've tried to keep unchanged): Ed Morana (w. of L. Tahoe) 35E John Sanford 24E D. Dunham - 1 10E D. Dunham - 2 6W Sandy Bumgarner 14W D. Dunham - 3 30W Richard Nugent 33W (Wayne Watson will not be in Colfax to observe) Derald Nye 40W Bumgarner-2 (Breit? Falla?) 45W Art Lucas 50W Steve Preston 52W Kent Okasaki 55W Rick Baldridge 70W (Oakland better for filling a gap than Sonora, which has higher risk of clouds) Steve Preston John Sanford - work with me, I'll telephone before I leave (much earlier than you'll need to). I will have my last e-mail contact before the event at 11:30 am PDT. Up until the occultation I can be reached by cell phone at 301-526-5590, and will also have it on Sat. morning as I drive to the IOTA meeting in Rocklin afterwards. Under C, * will be a committed fixed-site observer, V = * with video, and m = tentative location for mobile observer, and M = tentative location for mobile video observer. w = maybe will be cloudy and W = video observer who may be clouded out (the uncertain movements of Claudette's remains make it difficult to tell if specific parts of southern California and the Sierras really will be cloudy or not). Dist. U.T. W.Long. Lat. h City/ State/ Observer or km C h m o o m Town Country Observatory 225E -- Eastern limit with very unlikely 3-sigma east shift 171E * 6 3.2 120.537 47.000 491 Cen.Wash.U. R.LaBar Ellensburg, WA 163E -- Eastern limit with unlikely but possible 2-sigma east shift 126E M?6 4.2 118.390 37.3601000 Bishop CA Jim Stoffaire - move west? 106E ? 6 3.3 121.143 45.647 0 Tony George-4 OR 1.29? Steve 102E -- Eastern limit with very possible 1-sigma east shift 96E ? 6 3.3 121.293 45.679 0 Tony George-3 OR 1.16? Steve 90E * 6 3.3 121.365 45.699 0 Tony George-2 OR 1.09? Steve 89E w 6 4.0 119.559 39.2741311 Dayton, NV Red Sumner 20cm Newt. 82E * 6 3.3 121.477 45.704 0 Tony George-1 OR 0.99? Steve 78E W 6 4.5 117.681 34.3822287 19961217 Table Mtn. Obs., Wrightwood, CA 66E V 6 3.1 122.067 47.762 0 Woodinville WA GPS1.5h Ajai Sehgal vid 64E * 6 4.1 119.361 37.8712500 TuolemneMeadows,CADave McKulle camp site 63E * 6 3.1 122.100 47.730 132 Redman, WA John Seamans 61E * 6 3.1 122.120 47.670 0 Redmond, WA Andrey Batchvarov approx. 56E * 6 3.1 122.146 47.477 100 Renton, WA John Robbins 0.67 53E V 6 3.1 122.240 47.762 0 David Trowbridge WA 0.63Y Steve 51E V 6 3.1 122.237 47.639 0 Medina WA 0.61Y Steve Preston's wife 44E 6 4.3 118.825 36.100 280 e. of Globe, CA DWD? CA rte. 190 44E V 6 2.5 122.790 53.906 0 Bob Nelson-2 BC 0.53Y Tatum 40E - 6 4.3 118.812 36.000 0 ** old predicted eastern limit ** 40E V 6 2.5 122.848 53.766 0 Bob Nelson-1 BC 0.48Y Tatum 39E V 6 3.1 122.402 47.665 0 Robert Eramia WA 0.47Y Steve 38E 6 4.3 119.008 36.375 0 s.DensonCove, CA DWD? Ave. 324 34E 6 4.3 119.205 36.722 520 Ruth Mountain, CA DWD? Ruth Hill Rd. 31E V 6 3.1 122.507 47.611 64 Bainbridge Is.,WA Dave Runyan 30E W 6 4.5 118.129 34.199 349 ALTADENA CA G.Lyzenga &L. Benner 30E w 6 4.5 118.134 34.205 533 Altadena CA Bill Owen 27E 6 3.8 120.942 41.183 0 Adin, CA CA 139 desperation 26E V 6 3.1 122.580 47.659 0 Battle Pt Pk WA 0.30Y Steve 22E 6 4.2 119.340 36.717 0 e.KaktusKorner,CA DWD? CA rte. 180 21E --6 4.3 119.052 36.000 0 New E. Limit ** new eastern limit ** 21E w 6 4.5 118.062 33.861 0 Cerritos, CA Curt Shneider 19E w 6 4.6 118.042 33.779 6 SealBech CA D. P. WERNER 17E V 6 3.1 122.694 47.646 3 Silverdale WA Dale Ireland 15E 6 4.3 119.258 36.328 0 e.of Visalia, CA DWD? CA 198 & J15 14E V 6 3.1 122.746 47.715 33 Bangor, WA Art Lee vid. 7mi.w.Seattle 12E - extrapolated central line if eastward trend continues *** 9E 6 3.8 121.142 41.120 0 Bieber, CA CA 139 desperation 6E * 6 3.5 122.083 44.182 0 Paul Swadener OR mobile from L. Dunn 3E M 6 4.5 118.596 34.514 700 Castaic Lake, CA Steve Edberg mobile 2E V 6 2.9 123.144 49.276 0 Dan Collier Vancouver BC MacMillan SpCtr 1E V 6 4.5 118.564 34.407 393 VALENCIA CA FRANK ANET 0E - 6 4.3 119.285 36.000 0 Center Calif. UT 6:04:18 obs.to Jul06 0W V 6 2.9 123.168 49.251 96 Bill Ronald Vancouver BC -0.03Y Tatum 4W V 6 3.2 122.860 47.040 0 Dale Gombert WA -0.08Y Steve 5W 6 4.2 119.662 36.738 0 e. of Fresno, CA DWD? CA180 & Temperance 7W w 6 4.6 118.357 33.810 30 Torrance CA Don Davies 8W W 6 4.0 120.708 39.271 0 Blue Canyon, CA Obseratory D. Kenyon vid. 10W w 6 4.6 118.395 33.800 0 w. of D. Davies Bruce Herrick approx. 14W 6 3.8 121.400 41.050 0 McArthur, CA CA 139 desperation 14W 6 4.3 119.600 36.328 0 Hamblin, CA DWD? CA rtes. 198 & 43 19W V 6 3.0 123.313 48.463 74 Jeremy Tatum U Victoria BC -0.26Y 20W * 6 3.2 123.102 47.226 0 Shelton, WA Walter Morgan 20W --6 4.3 119.524 36.000 0 New Center Calif. UT 6:04:18 obs.to Jul07 23W W?6 4.1 120.380 37.980 0 Sonora, CA Rick Baldridge probably not? 25W 6 4.3 119.607 36.050 0 sw of Corcoran,CA DWD? w. end Quebec Ave. 26W * 6 3.0 123.403 48.450 0 Victoria, BC Paul Quin 26W V 6 3.0 123.417 48.521 229 Les Saddlemyer DAO48" Victoria BC Tatum 27W * 6 3.3 122.810 45.450 0 Beaverton, OR Scott Huddleston 33W W 6 4.0 121.015 39.262 823 Colfax, CA Richard Nugent 40W - 6 4.3 119.754 36.000 0 W.Lim. Calif. UT old western limit 41W 6 3.8 121.670 40.880 0 Burney, CA CA 139 desperation 60W V 6 2.9 123.962 49.156 0 Bill Weller Nanaimo BC -0.77Y Tatum 61W --6 4.3 119.991 36.000 0 New W. Limit ** new western limit ** 65W V 6 3.5 122.929 44.035 0 Larry Dunn OR Larry Dunn video 66W ? 6 4.0 121.212 38.790 0 Rocklin, CA Sierra College planetarium 70W M 6 4.1 120.850 37.770 0 Oakdale, CA Rick Baldridge probable 76W * 6 3.4 123.206 44.569 0 Cuyla Shelton OR 1sig W. zone L Dunn 78W * 6 3.5 123.097 44.079 0 Rick Kang, Eugene OR L. Dunn 79W - 6 4.3 120.202 36.000 0 Center Calif. UT 6:04:17 obs.to Apr18 82W * 6 4.5 119.507 34.404 0 Carpinteria, CA Ed Edwards 10 in. 87W * 6 4.0 121.378 38.589 0 Sacramento, CA Noel Lerner 96W * 6 4.0 121.460 38.560 0 Sacramento, CA Manuel Tsihlas 10 in. 102W - Western limit with very possible 1-sigma west shift 123W * 6 3.5 123.397 43.200 0 Roseburg, OR Paul Morgan 128W V 6 2.9 124.941 49.687 59 Mark Kardos Courtenay BC -1.58Y Tatum 130W V 6 2.9 124.982 49.736 51 Lee Disher Courtenay BC -1.61Y Tatum 133W V 6 2.9 125.010 49.677 31 E Majden & J Purry Courtenay BC -1.65Y 152W * 6 4.2 121.400 36.850 0 Hollister CA David Baumgartner 163W - Western limit with unlikely but possible 2-sigma west shift 194W * 6 4.1 122.130 37.430 0 PaloAlto CA Hank Sielski Stanford 225W - Western limit with very unlikely 3-sigma west shift Since Steve now has a new path on his Web site, the old path is not available there, the one used for my calculations above. So that path (that central line) is copied below. Path Coordinates (Preston's update of July 6): Occultation of HIP 68516 by 1263 Varsavia on 2003 Jul 18 Centre Star Star Sun E. Longitude Latitude U.T. Alt Az Alt o ' " o ' " h m s o o o -112 25 1 24 0 0 6 5 33 30 277 -40 -113 7 34 25 0 0 6 5 27 31 276 -39 -113 48 27 26 0 0 6 5 21 32 276 -38 -114 27 43 27 0 0 6 5 15 32 275 -36 -115 5 26 28 0 0 6 5 8 33 274 -35 -115 41 41 29 0 0 6 5 2 34 273 -34 -116 16 29 30 0 0 6 4 56 34 272 -33 -116 49 54 31 0 0 6 4 50 35 271 -32 -117 21 57 32 0 0 6 4 43 35 270 -31 -117 52 40 33 0 0 6 4 37 36 269 -30 -118 22 5 34 0 0 6 4 31 36 268 -29 -118 50 13 35 0 0 6 4 25 36 267 -28 -119 17 5 36 0 0 6 4 18 37 266 -26 -119 42 41 37 0 0 6 4 12 37 265 -25 -120 7 1 38 0 0 6 4 6 37 264 -24 -120 30 5 39 0 0 6 3 59 37 263 -23 -120 51 54 40 0 0 6 3 53 38 262 -22 -121 12 25 41 0 0 6 3 47 38 261 -21 -121 31 39 42 0 0 6 3 41 38 260 -20 -121 49 34 43 0 0 6 3 34 38 259 -19 -122 6 8 44 0 0 6 3 28 38 258 -18 -122 21 19 45 0 0 6 3 22 38 257 -17 -122 35 4 46 0 0 6 3 16 38 256 -17 -122 47 22 47 0 0 6 3 10 38 255 -16 -122 58 7 48 0 0 6 3 4 37 254 -15 -123 7 16 49 0 0 6 2 57 37 253 -14 -123 14 45 50 0 0 6 2 51 37 252 -13 -123 20 28 51 0 0 6 2 45 37 251 -12 -123 24 19 52 0 0 6 2 40 37 250 -11 -123 26 11 53 0 0 6 2 34 36 250 -10 -123 25 56 54 0 0 6 2 28 36 249 -9 Good luck with your observations! David Dunham, 2003 July 17, 11 am PDT = July 17 18h UT