Lunar Impact Predictions by Peter Gural
Updated: 2000 Nov. 1I just finished a first version of the software for the lunar meteoroid impact predictions for the next three months. The attached file has the images with the white points representing the potential impact areas for a uniformly random distribution of stream particles, the white cross is the radiant subpoint on the near side (black cross if on the far side). I included the Leonids from 1999 for comparison. Hope to get out a complete list for all streams from 2001 once we settle on a final format/display. The 2000 Leonids are as everyone knew most unfavorable with a few leakers over the northeast limb but unfortunately on the bright face for Nov 17. On Nov 18 the geometry is worse with the moon closer to the radiant with virtually no impacts visible. There is the possibility of seeing a dust plume rise from the northeast bright limb however. The Geminids are also poor with a full moon near the radiant. The Ursids have good geometry but are a slow speed shower (33 km/sec) and low ZHR=10 but worth a look (note the early AM conditions just before sunrise). The Quadrantids on Jan 4 also have good geometry and higher ZHR and is worthwhile targeting. Also note that so-called daylight meteor streams can be visible (the sextantids on sept 27) but with most of the impacts occuring on the daylit side of the moon. Any comments on improvements are welcome as I finalize the output generated from this software. Thanks....Pete G [We've had some technical difficulties in displaying the prediction files on the Web. Two possibilies are given below; one hopefully will work for you.]============================== Peter S. Gural Senior Scientist Science Applications International Corp. 4001 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 500 Arlington, VA 22203 703-816-5954 peter.s.gural@saic.com ===============================